The people who have already proven they are very good at making money hand over fist have started placing their bets on shelter inflation We should probably pay attention

I had lunch with 2 Utah apartment developers last week, and the takeaway was very clear. One is planning a $20m project. The other is almost done with a $200m complex. The takeaway? Utah is immune from the oversaturated glut of multifamily that other parts of the country are

Good read

There’s less competition buying an apartment deal ~ 100 units. Once you go 250+ you’re up against the whales

Funny how that works

Equity Residential (3rd largest apartment REIT by unit count) had its earnings call this morning. LOTS and LOTS of great color. Here are some takeaways: 1) Strong demand -- both for new and renewal leases -- from renters in strong financial position.

The largest apartment REIT -- MAA -- had its earnings call yesterday. With >100k units at mix of rent levels, MAA has scale to offer fascinating insights on the market, especially in Sun Belt. 1) Big demand, rent-to-income ratios down to 21%. Avg renter HH income now $91k.

Multifamily is not the next office. CLOs (the high-risk loan type featured in WSJ piece this week) represent 3.4% of the $2.2 trillion in U.S. multifamily debt. MSCI estimates $81b in "potential distress" -- which is 3.6% of the market. Most multifamily loans are boring.

Turns out all the distressed multifamily loans aren’t actually distressed. The lenders are making it painfully clear. They will not sell off loans less than par (100% loan value). They will however partner with new sponsors who will step into the existing loan at modified

We've added more new apartment supply in the first nine months of 2024 than we did in any FULL CALENDAR YEAR going back 30+ years. And more coming. We're at peak supply. Enjoy the view (and its impact on falling rents) b/c it won't last past next year, given plunge in starts.

Just got off a call with an LP equity investor that manages pension fund capital. There were a lot of great takeaways, but the most interesting is what's happening with life company spreads. Before sharing the data points, it's important to understand how life company pricing

If you squint and zoom in really closely, you'll see apartment rent growth inched up to an 18-month high ... at 0.47%. Perhaps more importantly, it marks 3 straight months of (ever-so-slight) momentum. Also: We're now 2+ years past the era of double-digit rent growth.

Apartment supply is peaking now, but about to plunge off the cliff. Here's the projected timeline for when apartment supply (completions) will fall back BELOW pre-COVID averages again, among top 50 metro areas. I've included (on Y axis) peak supply expansion rate (completions /

Cost of construction is coming down fast, with bids coming in much cheaper. Based on conversations I have had with developers across the US and across product types in the past couple of weeks, the average amount was roughly between (-10%) to (-15%) cheaper. Construction is

I've been posting about this for the last 1-2 years as construction starts plunged. Our development cycles have been so volatile -- which isn't good for renters or for investors/developers. Every city in America should be doing its part to make construction easier, faster and

Proud to get this one done. A lot of work went into to this from the Buyer and Seller.