John Williams's prepared remarks don't make any effort to lay the groundwork for a 50 basis point cut. Williams says "policy can be moved to a more neutral setting over time." He's doing Q&A now, and if the person asking questions decides to ask about monetary policy instead

The Fed needs to get rates down. I would do this with a 50 basis point cut in September because it is clear a 50 basis point cut is needed this fall. And they are balancing risks: right now the risk to the labor market is greatest. Cut 50 now & wait and see about later cuts.

Great insight, Parker Ross. So many workers have exhausted their unemployment insurance benefits in recent months and lost eligibility that claims are likely understating labor market stress.

My takeaways from the jobs report: - Private-sector job growth outside healthcare is unusually weak, and slowing - Unemployment is flat and underemployment is rising - Americans are taking fewer vacations, experiencing more childcare problems ziprecruiter-research.org/commentary/job…

I can't understand why 50bps should signal crisis. Most Taylor Rules already have the FFR lower by 100bps or more based on current data inputs. Why are monetary policymakers so scared of being seen to have made a mistake that they'd rather do nothing, or next to nothing?

Must-read Heather Long column on the "thin-ice conditions" facing the US economy, arguing for a decisive cut to interest rates washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

In June alone, Austin Texas permitted 1,156 units of new apartments—which is more than twice as many as San Francisco has permitted in the entirety of 2024. In total, Austin is on track to allow ~10x as many new units as SF this year SF's housing policy is suffocating the city

I’m team pencil-and-paper. The Wall Street Journal: After working to ban phones in the classroom, parents are now seeking a return to pencil and paper wsj.com/articles/the-p…

In June the FOMC expected that when the unemployment rate hit 4.2% and core PCE inflation was 2.3% y/y the target fed funds rate range would be at 4.0%-4.25%, seems pretty straightforward to explain a pull forward of rate cuts at the outset w/o looking panicked

“There is no EU company with a market cap over EUR 100 billion that has been set up from scratch in the last 50 years… While all six US companies with a valuation above EUR 1 trillion have been created in this period.”

In 2005, there were about 14,000 builders in the U.S. that were closing at least 10 homes a year. That number was down to just 3,100 as of 2023, the lowest level we’ve ever seen in our database.

Economists who produce detailed inflation forecasts expect the August CPI to have been relatively mild, as was July. The median of these forecasts has the core CPI up 0.21%, which would hold the 12-month rate at 3.2%. Headline CPI is seen decelerating to 2.5%.

Fact Check: FALSE. Former President Trump calls the BLS-Labor Statistics -818K preliminary benchmark revision of jobs numbers evidence of government "fraud." Many Americans have good faith questions about how such a big mistake is possible. But it is really only half a percent of the total

Is crime up or down? A fascinating Pew study on the issue that finds: - Most data sources say crime is down - Most Americans believe crime is up - Most crimes aren't reported, most of those aren't solved - Police clearance rates for violent crimes are down pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…

Fact check: Not exactly. VP Harris took credit for creating 800K manufacturing jobs. That figure includes jobs lost and recovered during the pandemic. There are only 147K net new manufacturing jobs in American now than before the pandemic.