Will the AI boom turn into a bubble?  If so, what would be the signs?  For one, the Mag 7 might be trading at much higher multiple than it is today, and the more speculative elements of the market would likely reach even higher multiples.   For now, the GS non-profitable tech

The Buffett Indicator just hit 217%. That’s 69% above trend. Every time in history we’ve been this stretched… the crash came fast.

12 all-time highs for the S&P 500 in August and September in 2025. Only once did it have more and that was 14 in 1929.

Then vs now.

Regarding the “are we in a bubble” question, check out this chart. What does it tell you? Source: Goldman Sachs

Be careful, the correction will be violent when it happens

That’s not to say that valuations aren’t lofty. Far from it. The 5-year CAPE ratio is now at 31.5x, which is the highest since the internet bubble burst in 2000. While the cap-weighted P/E ratio is in the upper percentiles of history, the median P/E has remained fairly well

One chart to refute them all… … to be continued Nov 25th, or before.

Crash vs Correction:

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 7,600 by end-2026, driven by a friendlier Fed, solid earnings and investors' willingness to live with lofty valuations 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 Goldman Sachs $spx #spx #equity #stocks

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Valuations may look stretched, but the S&P 500 has held a steady 22.7% annualized uptrend since October 2022 and now sits near the bottom of that trend channel 👉isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t Deutsche Bank $spx #spx #sp500 #equity #stocks

The average bear market lasts 14 months and is followed by a 70-month bull market. JPMAM

- 16% of S&P 500 stocks are trading at 52-week highs - 5% are sitting at 52-week lows This has only occurred 3 other times: • July 1990 • August 2015 • March 2025 Every time, the S&P 500 saw a 10%+ correction within around 2 months.

Does this data frighten you?

March was a tough month on investors. Global equities lost $12 trillion in March, marking the largest monthly dollar decline on record.

Nobody is talking about the 12 month rate of change on oil right now. They should be. WTI crude's ROC(12) just spiked to over 91%. Let me show you what happened every other time it did this. - 1987 Crash. - 1990 Crash. - Dot Com Bust. - 2008 Financial Crisis. - 2022 Bear

As the early 1970s was plagued by war (Vietnam), stubborn inflation eroding bonds, and an oil crisis.. TODAY those similarities are uncannily similar. We have the Iran war that's causing an oil crisis with no end in sight for now. That's spiked oil up significantly (recent moves

In 2007, I was sitting on a large amount of undrawn commitments to invest in bombed out MBS securities. Didn’t invest at all until 2008, didn’t get fully invested until March 2009. It’s 2007 for Private Credit. Come home to DoubleLine.

I know.

"PE/ex-cash PE of China internet companies" UBS