🇨🇭My key takeaways on why Switzerland doesn't need negative interest rates in the current business cycle phase: #NIRP #CHF #SNB #Pictet Pictet AM | Swiss don't need to go negative am.pictet.com/ch/en/investme…

🇪🇺 The ECB's paper on the neutral rate is out, but it's not a game-changer. Their range of estimates for the real rate is around 0%, or 1.75%-2.25% in nominal terms, in line with Christine Lagarde's comments. Huge uncertainty means the ECB should tread carefully. ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…

Latest Bloomberg Intelligence US Rates research note discusses SOFR Swap Spreads and we suggest more widening could occur if Donald J. Trump gets some bank deregulation completed, see lnkd.in/eu_F3cf7 for details.

📢New version of our paper 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 available! 👇

Forget the US, Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself - Mario Draghi for FT Opinion ft.com/content/13a830…

1/ 14 February 2025 #ITALY’S #PUBLIC #FINANCES Debt ratio below official projections; reduced liquidity balances Today, the Bank of Italy unveiled the nominal value of Italy’s public debt in 2024.

In yesterday’s Sunday Wrap I argue: 1- JD Vance’s speech in Munich (along other Trump messages last week) is a turning point at par with Putin’s speech there in 2007. 2- Markets have failed so far to price in the enormity of destruction now under way research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/econom…

Demain, la Cour des Comptes publie son rapport sur le déficit des retraites. Voici une analyse concise de mon point de vue. Le principe de la retraite par répartition repose sur le fait que les cotisations des actifs financent les pensions des retraités actuels. Ce transfert est

Draghi in Brussels: «You say no to public debt. You say no to the single market. You say no to create a capital market union. You can't say no to everything...You ask me what to do…I don’t know, but do something.»

We have developed 𝗠𝗜𝗟𝗔 (𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆-𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗟𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁) - an AI tool designed to evaluate ECB communication, assessing individual sentences from monetary policy statements and speeches given both in-document and the macro context. \1

"An inferior lender of last resort beats no lender of last resort" cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

My ideas for how "le Grand Contintent" (Europe) should handle the economic and diplomatic challenge posed by President Trump. En francais 1/ legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/05/08/…

Yields on US 30-year bonds are bumping up against the highest levels this year, at 4.96%. This is notable because it comes after a softer-than-expected CPI print yesterday, and raises the question: which data could spur buying at a time of profound and long-term questions?

This looks like a paper worth reading carefully! "Three Theories of Natural Rate Dynamics" by Galo Nuño "The traditional view is that the natural rate primarily depends on structural factors, such as demographics and productivity growth." "In this paper we challenge this view.

I’m happy to share the latest piece from the Market Microstructure Project, which is the product of an ongoing conversation with my RA, Kai Owen, on the structure and evolution of private markets. This particular installment focuses on private credit and secondaries, and aims to

Very happy to share that my job market paper, "Designing a Green Memorandum: Central Bankers, Politicians, Monetary Policy, and Macroprudential Regulation", here co-authored with my supervisors, is out in Macroeconomic Dynamics!

Link to the lecture presentation is here: bis.org/speeches/sp250…

In April 2025, the USD saw its largest declines during Asian trading hours, even as US Treasuries posted gains during those hours, suggesting that Asian investors' hedging was a significant driver of USD depreciation. bit.ly/4ngvMI3 #hedging #treasuries #BISBulletin

Interest on reserves. Why eliminating it by Congressional fiat is not a great idea grumpy-economist.com/p/interest-on-…

No one really knows how big the U.S. repo market is. Or rather, no one 𝑑𝑖𝑑. We combed through the appendixes to a decade of annual reports for over 150 dealers and banks to get the full picture. The total? $12 trillion, almost doubling previous estimates.