Mechanism would have been triggered for 44 days between 26 July & 29 Sept 25 July: Nord Stream down to final turbine 19 Aug: Final turbine will be taken offline for servicing from 31 Aug 2 Sept: Oil leak at Portovaya - offline indefinitely 26 Sept: Nord Stream explosions

In summer 2022, mechanism would have been triggered by 'extraordinary' events. In a tight market (2022/23), could 'normal' conditions of cold weather in N hemisphere, higher demand in Euro & Asia, & lower performance from non-gas power gen be enough to trigger the mechanism?

If high European prices are caused by global LNG market developments (LNG demand outside Europe and/or global LNG supply curtailment), the 35 EUR/MWh buffer will effectively prevent the price cap coming into force #eugaspricecap

Price cap activation is much more likely if a 'localised' event causes European gas prices to spike well above LNG prices. Given storage stocks, 'ordinary' cold weather likely insufficient trigger. But curtailment of pipeline supply (eg RU gas via UA)... 🤔#eugaspricecap

Great article by Kira Taylor on the new gas price cap. Thank you for re-tweeting my graph of historic prices compared to the old (275 EUR/MWh) & new, pre-summit (188 EUR/MWh) proposals. My conclusion of "lower cap = more likely to be used" is even truer at 180 EUR/MWh...

Coming up on RN Breakfast for the 6am hour📻📻: Jack Sharples - EU reach agreement to cap gas prices Catherine Namakula - UN delegation in Australia looking at how racism affects people of African descent LISTEN LIVE: ab.co/2GqJiZo #auspol

A pleasure to join RN Breakfast yesterday morning to discuss the EU wholesale gas price cap

LNG Contracts in the Context of Market Turbulence and an Uncertain Future - A wave of new LNG supply in 2025-28 is coming - What about LNG supply growth post-2030? - How will new contracts underpin that supply? Read my latest OIES paper here: tinyurl.com/OIESPaper2023-…

13 Nov: OMV announces arbitration win for its German subsidiary, OMV Gas Marketing & Trading, against Gazprom over shortfall in supply in 2022. Plans to offset arbitral award against next invoice from Gazprom Export for supply to OMV in Austria omv.com/en/news/241113…

15 Nov: Central European Gas Hub (CEGH) reports that Gazprom Export will reduce supply to OMV in Austria to zero from 6am (CET) on 16 Nov. Volume affected is 177.6 GWh/d (16.4 MMcm/d) - equivalent to 6 Bcma gashub.at/remit/details.…

If #Gazprom supply to #OMV does indeed fall to zero tomorrow, expect a sharp drop in flow from #Slovakia to #Austria, which have been generally 280-310 GWh/d in November so far. Volumes reported on #ENTSOG Transparency Platform: transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?…

The end of #Gazprom supply to #Austria surely makes more likely that the expiry of the gas transportation contract on 31 December will signal the end of #Russiangas transit via #Ukraine

Impact of #Gazprom ceasing supply to #OMV #Austria. Exit flows from Slovakia into Austria at #Baumgarten: Thu 14 Nov: 292 GWh/d (27.2 MMcm/d) Fri 15 Nov: 295 GWh/d (27.5 MMcm/d) Sat 16 Nov: 240 GWh/d (22.4 MMcm/d) - "assumed daily flow" eustream: tis.eustream.sk/en/online-data…

Hourly gas flows from #Slovakia to #Austria at Baumgarten fell to 9.9 GWh/hour at 15.00 (CET) today. In 2024 YTD flows were almost never 10 GWh/d for more than 2 hours at a time. Time series: ∑ Flow Baumg Source: Austrian Gas Grid Management (AGGM) platform.aggm.at/portal/visuali…

Impact of #Gazprom cessation of #natgas supply to #OMV on regional flows in Central Europe will be reflected in the #GasConnectAustria (GCA) daily flow chart in the coming days. Example below is for 14 Nov 2024 (the latest available as of 16 Nov). Source: gasconnect.at/en/network-inf…