Everyone (including me) overestimates their stock picking ability in a bull market.

Trading is addictive. Option buyers play lotteries. Option sellers run Insurance business. The Broker keeps printing money.

Talbros automotive: From 350cr to 1550cr Mcap.

Newgen Software: Massive P/E rerating in last one year. From 16x to 47x

You know you bought it very cheap when Single day price movement is almost equal to original purchase price.

Bull Market dilemma: I buy a business (Sobha Ltd) at 5k cr mcap, expecting it to 15k cr mcap in next 3 years. Within 5 months, it became 14k cr. I don't want to increase my cash allocation anymore, I can't find any new attractive business at bargain price. What to do?

Finished reading this gem. A book worth rereading. Thank you Antifragile Thinking 🙏

Good: Portfolio at ATH Bad: Overconfidence at ATH Worse: Greed at ATH Worst: Arrogance at ATH Most mistakes happen in best macro condition. My hedge 1. Don't overpay. 2. Double check businesses which require external capital. 3. Keep some cash.

Newgen Software: FY24 PAT: 237cr Almost 40% growth over last year. Headwinds in large IT service companies don't affect product based SAAS business. Market cap 13k cr (not cheap).

1. PG electroplast 6x 2. Kaynes tech 4x 3. Data pattern 3x 4. HBL 5x Bull market effect. Trying hard not to confuse between luck & skill.

XPRO India: AR 2024 mentions about 4th Biaxial line by FY27. FY28 can see 250cr EBITDA (4x) considering current 40% margin sustains. Consider additional 290cr equity dilution before calculating forward multiple.

IRIS Business: Revenue growth 28.7%. However PAT is almost 3x Operating leverage is 🔥

Honest management looks like this: Analyst: Still not able to see any sign from European clients? Management: Answer is no. Europe chemical industry will have a rough time. Antifragile Thinking

Following account is impersonating me. Please report SWARNASHISH CHATTERJEE

Q3 Result Tomorrow. Curious the see its execution in H2, especially Q4. Name can be found in result calendar.

Zen Tech: "If you get into quarterly guessing Game, you will be very unhappy investor" Source: Q1FY25 earnings call Stock is down 20% after Q3 numbers.

Arrogance evaporated, confidence shaken. I am also a victim in this bloodbath. Started deploying cash slowly. Anyway, Most businesses are still not cheap yet.

Many good people warned people Gensol Engineering. Nitin Mangal was one of the first ones (Mar, 2024). He even replied to my DM naming the corporation. Stock is down 90% from peak.

The perpetrator will keep preying if he doesn't face consequences.