During the best of times, people make the worst mistakes.
We witnessed this during the TMT bull run of 1999–2000; 2007 cyclical bull run. This phenomenon resurfaced in 2015 amid the #Pharma madness. In 2021, a chemical bubble emerged.

And what's in 2024??

Source: Howard Marks

1. Recognition of option : lumpiness .i.e grey swan

2. Ability to exercise that option, what taleb calls as ability to 'implement' the options : The super-linear scaling from infrastructure (more output than input(non-linearity)

3. No tourisitificaion : no guidance

Laurus CDMO may start to catch the imagination of investors in FY27. I remember Neuland having a CDMO of less than 5 Cr in 2007. They are currently in the process of transitioning from Innovator-NCE from less than 5 Cr to more than 5000 Cr. Time is the single biggest friend.

Laurus will probably double in 3Y, but smaller Pharma/CDMO companies can probably double next year itself. Consider the opportunity cost of capital. The best of Laurus will be FY27 (I tweeted this before the results and will RT now). #Laurus is not #Neuland . No recommendation!

BBC sponsored this event. They wanted to gain some real insights about modern India. Palki Sharma presented verifiable information while debunking false stories. No bogus talk. All genuine 🫶

IIS, IITs are the new MIT, Cambridge, Imperial, and Oxfords!

youtube.com/watch?v=yjFEYR…

Public shareholding pattern tells you everything about the journey. Stay out of overcrowded trades. There is plenty of good value @ sustainably high earnings growth quality and all this is still below the media chatter. Use Twitter as a guide to exit, avoid the crowded ones.

Warning: Pharma is a cyclical sector with added US FDA risk. Don't chase commodity APIs like SMS Pharma at lifetime highs. As a disclosure, our average holding price in SMS Pharma is somewhere near ₹ 30/-

The countercyclical framework has been explained in my book. Thanks.

Disclosure:

Sold SMS Pharma after 4 years of holding. Needed to rebalance the Pharma basket.

old lessons; new students

What you dislike in pessimism becomes appealing in optimism. The cycle always repeats.

First, the mindset becomes frothy. Then valuations. Then treatment starts. The patient dies or recovers.

What happened with that one is playing out today with this one. Similar challenges. If something is damn easy, then anyone and everyone will do it, and ultimately, no one will make a high ROCE. Never leave the forest for the trees. Darkest before dawn. Mark my words. Don't miss.

Last hint: stock has been a 25x and is still making new highs. It made new life high, ahead of industry leaders like Torrent or Sun Pharma. Most replies below failed to read my X (as those companies don't have US FDA approval).

The CDMO potential of this unseen company will continue to surprise the “XL fiction DCF model” analysts

No it’s not Divis
No it’s not Neuland
Neither Syngene nor Suven
No it’s not GLS, Laurus, Piramal, Hikal, Kopran, Supriya, Shilpa either!

Company has clean US FDA record 🤞

Poonawalla + Biosimilar = Choonawalla

The phenomenon known as the 'turkey syndrome,' which has been evident in #BajajFinance , is likely to occur in other sectors, such as non-banking and non-NBFC cyclicals.

In these cases, the 'storification' causes the price to book value to become hyper-inflated, but the macro…

Never underestimate the lumpiness and sudden fall in stocks in Pharma (US FDA issue) or life sciences innovator value chain. Chaos and disorder is common in these (as examples)👇

Laurus
Neuland
Glenmark Life
Syngene
JB Pharma
Orchid

Be careful. Never speculate.

In my book, I published the opportunity loss of capital antithesis on several stocks, from #SPARC and #Wockhardt to #Suven Life. I shared several anti-thesis pointers from recent sessions with Smart Sync Investment Advisory Services and Prince | Accidental Investor 🇮🇳

In early April, when the stock was close to 450, people…

Sometime next month, rather than this Sunday, a trio of dumbos—my intuition, heart, and little brain—will provide an update on #LaurusLabs . Meanwhile, if you're looking for some false insights, my book might help. Do your best to resist the urge to buy this pricey book that you…

With immediate effect, #Biocon has diversified into the Capex, bioenergy, and biodefense sectors. ROCE will be 60%, and the balance sheet will show net cash. The net cash will be deployed into the next momentum sector. The stock exchanges and SEBI are already aware of this new…