#Canada’s federal election will shape the country’s future and its relationship with the US. Pollitik x Universidad San Sebastián LabDemGob examine the election's candidates and possible outcomes. Will Liberals remain in power or do Canadians think it's time for change? #ÉlectionCanadienne”

Forecast #3 from the Virtual Exchange program between Pollitik & LabDemGob Universidad San Sebastián. Oddly, the fundamentals from 6 months out gave Labour a slight edge, according to our model. Horse-race polls now show a similar story. Pls repost! Report👇 pollitik.substack.com/p/electoral-pr…

🗣️📢Read the article on our Substack: open.substack.com/pub/pollitik/p…

Rally caps, on! Nice job Ali Whatley & team at Pollitik ! Check out full article; link in the comment

Great to be in Curitiba for a workshop muito legal for ReDem. Thanks to ⁦Ednaldo Ribeiro⁩ and ⁦Julian Borba⁩ for hosting me!

🚨 In case you missed it: Pollitik’s Fundamentals Forecaster successfully predicted the #Canadian Liberal Party’s victory! 🇨🇦 We projected a Liberal Party win with PM Carney at 42.14% — just 1.66% off his actual vote-share of 43.8%! 🍁🔍 #CDNpoli #Forecasting #LiberalParty

My new pre-print w/Philip Warncke explores what happens if researchers violate assumptions of dimensionality & measurement equivalence in cross-national research on 'democratic mood', a.k.a. citizens' preference for democracy as a form of government. (link in comments)🧵

📢Convocatoria RLOP DOSSIER 2026 ⭐️ Info 👇 rlop.usal.es/index.php/es/2…. Repostear por favor!

We are accepting new submissions for publication in 2025!

Why not send us something to review RLOP?

Nayib Bukele’s been one of El Salvador’s most popular & highly approved presidents. Though high, slight dips in his approval starting his 2nd term are observed. An expected thermostatic effect or maybe indicative of something more? #ApprovalWatch #BukeleBuckle #ElSalvador 🔍📈🇸🇻

Argentinas 'iron law' (Calvo & Murillo): Non Peronists don't survive in office. Macri cracked it, Milei's is trying to shatter it. With approval hovering near 50% despite brutal austerity, Milei's chances look good but it's a long way til the '28 elections #Argentina #Milei

Good work VIC of Pollitik!

La popularidad de Bukele es claramente muy alta. Aunque los presidentes salvadoreños parecen caracterizarse por ser bien populares. Presidentes de varios países los deben envidiar

📉 President Yamandú Orsi’s approval rating has dipped to 43%, falling below Luis Lacalle Pou’s lowest mark of 51.7% during his presidency. Just months into office, Orsi faces a steeper uphill climb than his predecessor ever did.

🚨 Mark Carney surges! 🇨🇦📈 His approval jumps from 41.2% to 52% amid strong pushback against Trump’s trade threats. Canadians are rallying behind his steady, principled leadership. What’s driving this momentum? #MarkCarney #CanadianPolitics #PollingTrends

📊Chile 2025 Forecast: Jeanette Jara is projected to win 32.19% of the 1st-rd vote in Nov 2025 presidential election. Her win probability across both rounds is just 40.48% Polarization in Chile is opening space for far-right leadership🇨🇱 pollitik.substack.com/p/electoralpro… #ChileVota

Check out this new article! It looks under the hood of mood to figure out what, precisely, produces parallel movement in spending preferences. Thx Steven M. Van Hauwaert & Christopher Wlezien for inviting me to join!

🤷Why do Americans' views on social spending shift in parallel across policy areas? ➡️ Steven M. Van Hauwaert @cbwlezien & Ryan E Carlin show spending mood reflects shared policy preferences and responsiveness to overall spending and presidential party cambridge.org/core/journals/… #FirstView

Our long-range fundamentals forecast of the 2025 #Honduras election is published! While our results are surprising, massive polling misses in presidential elections in #Bolivia and #Guatemala make the worth considering. TL;DR #Rixi Moncada still has a chance!