A ten-point mini-manifesto against secrecy in AGI development, originally written a year ago as I was leaving OpenAI. (Link below)

In response to concerns that we underestimated China in AI 2027, Scott Alexander and I wrote up Why America Wins. In a word: compute.

We’re not the only one's confused by OpenAI model names. Which reasoning models come from which base models? Why is the new o3 different? What is the plan for GPT-5? How good will it be? We dive into our current best answers to all these questions and more in a new AI Futures Project

Since AI 2027 people have often asked us what they can do to make AGI go well. I've just published a blog post covering: (a) What a prepared world would look like (b) Learning recommendations to get up to speed (c) High-impact jobs and non-professional activities