Radar shot showing Shanghai (star) getting a direct hit from a decent-looking—but very small—Cat-1 #Typhoon #BEBINCA. Estimated winds are 65 knots. Surprisingly, the system seemed to get better organized as it approached the coast.

And Shanghai (star) gets perfectly clobbered by a tiny, compact Cat 1. Looks sexy on radar, although so far I haven't seen anything too crazy in terms of on-land surface obs. #Typhoon #BEBINCA

Everything in the Atlantic right now is crap. Just complete crap. Clear the gameboard, please.

Models are very gradually coming into some kind of agreement on a NW Caribbean/Gulf cyclone in the 7-10-day range. But whether its track is Cuba/Bahamas, Cuba/Florida/Carolinas, pure Mexico, or none of the above is up in the air. It's just a very broad signal at this point.

.Celinda Lake Heard you today on Greg Sargent's Daily Blast. Cool stuff. Learned a lot. Thx.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 is likely to come ashore without becoming a named storm. But this is an academic matter. Carolinas are getting tropical-storm conditions anyway, as well as serious flash flooding in the Wilmington area. Carolina Beach has likely had >15 in of rain.

00Z GFS doing its best DONNA 1960 impersonation.

Both Euro & GFS ensemble models show many possibilities for mischief in E side of Gulf in 10-15-day range. Euro keeps it all firmly in Gulf; GFS has greater spread, especially to E, with many members over Florida & Bahamas. Bottom line: models are sensing #hurricane fertility.

Just a reminder to the Wx Gods, because the computer models are looking like they're stuck on "repeat."

Look at y'all: champing at the bit for the 00Z GFS. Get a hold o' yourselves, please. 😎

And I call this expressive work "Cat-1 Landfalling Hurricane with 100 Hungry Chaserdudes On It."

Cocktail-hour GFS ain't messin' around.

Josh Morgerman

Well, the 00Z GFS sure is starting with a bang. Let's see how it ends...

00Z GFS looked scary—and maybe it's crazy. But, big picture, GFS *and* Euro ensembles are now pretty insistent on a #hurricane in the Gulf within 8-12 days.