I firmly believe that Donald Trump is going to win the Presidential election by carrying every single swing state. I also believe he will win the popular vote. My analysis is rooted in the numbers. Donald Trump has never polled as well as he is polling right now against Kamala

I’ve seen enough Kamala is done Trump is winning this election Zero doubts

Trump wins, unfortunately. Hopefully the left rebuilds by abandoning the progressive/far-left wing of the party and re-embrace the political center and unites around an authentic and credible candidate.

The women will prevail. #Lysistrata

THIS IS HUGE. Paris City Hall has announced that starting on Monday, Paris will limit (not ban) car traffic in the city centre, as cities like Ghent have done. They’re creating a limited traffic zone (ZTL) about 2 sq miles in size, to clean the air & create more space for people.

If you were wrong about your recession call in 2022, 2023 and 2024 now is not a time for self-reflection Double down on a 2025 recession call and blame government spending Move the goalposts at all costs That's how you pundit

Long overdue reformation of Green Party US 🌻 would see: 1. Core principles strengthened while kicking out The Woo. 2. No more POTUS candidates. 3. Concentrate on state positions more regularly, and the occasional House seat. How to start: admit you've accomplished nothing.

If you're an investor in $MSFT tell me if this happens to you: occasionally you find it necessary to interact with any Microsoft product, like Office or Teams, and you are absolutely mortified by the dysfunction, glitches, and lack of support.

The latest Waymo California driverless ride stats are out from California PUC. In August 2023: 12,000 for the month. In August 2024: 312,000 for the month.

Nate Cohen post on widespread herding. Nate Silver post on widespread herding. Selzer: no herding for me, folks. Let 'er rip.

The tedious refrain that we still doesn't know! what Harris' policy plans are is hilarious. I mean, you can literally make choices in the financial market to express the likely outcomes of her administration. See you Monday.

My final call is that Harris wins a 6 point race against Trump, a very moderate improvement over Biden. 3rd party vote advances a touch vs 2020. Trump meanwhile remains trapped at the 46% share level, this time at the low end. I have high conviction he can't break out to 47%.

The proposition before us is well described here by Leigh: what if policy designed to move the last few percentage points of unemployment has a very low political ROI, if not worse.

This quote that Jeff is reporting is a good indication to me that we'll probably never come to any consensus about the cause of the pandemic period inflation, and everyone will carry on, making up whatever explanation suits them. Hint: focus on jobs did not create inflation.

All the obituaries on this election lack the same thing: room for human unreason. Like a mugging victim desperate to learn how it was their fault (because that would be more reassuring) everyone is in the pool saying doing X, or not doing Y, would have made the difference.

The polls were correct. The betting markets were correct. And the aggregators like Nate Silver were correct. Conversely, all the takes since the election are wrong. You will not be right in your analysis, less than 7 days out, from a massive social event like an election.

Revealed preference consistently shows Americans have virtually no appetite for the disruption they either vote for, or think they want. This is a country that'll protest a change in library hours. Good luck to all the wacky disruptive "take some pain" plans of Trump-Musk.