Lumberjack Capital (@greenlumberfx) 's Twitter Profile
Lumberjack Capital

@greenlumberfx

FX swing trader, some crypto/ETF position trades. Posts are my personal opinions and not financial advice

ID: 1883949303300771840

calendar_today27-01-2025 18:44:59

865 Tweet

205 Followers

144 Following

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Double tops in fertilizer and $XLE components, while broader indices break down. IMO oil and Ags have further to go, but need a month or so to consolidate. In the meantime, the short side in the rest of the market is clearest to me.

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$TMUS Early is the same as wrong. Took a loss on Friday, following through this morning, looking for a lower high now to get back in

$TMUS Early is the same as wrong.

Took a loss on Friday, following through this morning, looking for a lower high now to get back in
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I don't see any reason to be bullish semiconductors $SMH The 4.236 Fib often marks cycle highs, and we look to be building out the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top. Interestingly enough we saw a similar cycle top in 2022.

I don't see any reason to be bullish semiconductors $SMH

The 4.236 Fib often marks cycle highs, and we look to be building out the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top. Interestingly enough we saw a similar cycle top in 2022.
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Short side is where I continue to see the clearest setups, and where I am starting to gain some traction. $SPOT following through - clean price action, and closed yesterday at its absolute low while indices rallied >3% through the day

Short side is where I continue to see the clearest setups, and where I am starting to gain some traction.

$SPOT following through - clean price action, and closed yesterday at its absolute low while indices rallied >3% through the day
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Even if you don’t trade the short side, it makes sense to study and understand short setups. Then the easy filter for market bias is whether there are more attractive long or short setups. Otherwise, without context, every big green candle looks like the start of the next rally.

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$LITE A current leader that looks like it is about to blindside its bag holders. Textbook reversal pattern, but I fear many are holding onto the false sense of security from Monday's rally, which really only brought it back to prior support, now turned resistance

$LITE A current leader that looks like it is about to blindside its bag holders. 

Textbook reversal pattern, but I fear many are holding onto the false sense of security from Monday's rally, which really only brought it back to prior support, now turned resistance
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Pretty much my entire watchlist is on the short side, except for spot $USOIL and spot sugar $CANE. Setups tell you all you need to know

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FinX darling $BE is headed to $100 IMO. $152 now. I would be short but I am already at max risk allocation so don't have space for it right now

FinX darling $BE is headed to $100 IMO. $152 now.

I would be short but I am already at max risk allocation so don't have space for it right now
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$EEM too early to definitively call a failed breakout on the higher timeframes, but worth noting that each of the last 2 bear markets began with marginal extension above cycle highs before failing and reversing. Makes me wonder if we need a real shake of the tree.

$EEM too early to definitively call a failed breakout on the higher timeframes, but worth noting that each of the last 2 bear markets began with marginal extension above cycle highs before failing and reversing.

Makes me wonder if we need a real shake of the tree.
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$BTC Very reasonable place for a significant move lower to begin. However in the back of my mind, still a chance price takes the equal highs at $74k before next move down.

$BTC Very reasonable place for a significant move lower to begin. 

However in the back of my mind, still a chance price takes the equal highs at $74k before next move down.