This is Reform's 7th council by-election win since the start of 2025. Per Electoral Calculus, 5/7 of these wards were won by Labour in the GE and one of the remaining two was won by Reform in the GE. Going forward, Reform may be a bigger problem for Labour than the Tories...

New post on Substack outlining how we can interpret the upcoming local elections and their impact on national politics: open.substack.com/pub/greatmontr…

New post on Substack analysing the rise of the Liberal Democrats in 'middle England': substack.com/@greatmontrose…

Pretty sure this is from a crosstab on the latest YouGov poll which your not meant to take out or risk statistical dodginess but ok...

New post on Substack discussing why inflation should not be discussed by political parties as much as it currently is: substack.com/home/post/p-16…

New post on Substack about two alternative paths the Conservative Party could take in order to save itself from potential extinction: substack.com/home/post/p-16…

New Post on Substack about the electoral future of the Green Party: substack.com/home/post/p-16…

New post on Substack on whether the collapse of Labour in Wales presents an opportunity for Plaid Cymru: open.substack.com/pub/greatmontr…

New Post on the UK’s trend towards ever greater political fragmentation: open.substack.com/pub/greatmontr…

New post on Substack asking the question of whether Labour can win another majority in 2029: open.substack.com/pub/greatmontr…

Looks like the independents elected in 2024 on a pro-Gaza platform are going to be the backbone of Britain's sixth main party: substack.com/home/post/p-16…