New essay: ML seems to promise discovery without understanding, but this is fool's gold that has led to a reproducibility crisis in ML-based science. aisnakeoil.com/p/scientists-s… (with Sayash Kapoor). In 2021 we compiled evidence that an error called leakage is pervasive in ML models

Writing a review and I just wrote: "People used to do theory. Now they just do regressions." I will delete my snark before submitting. But damn I am tired of vapid empirical papers that argue some neglected thing will transform our understanding and then ***regressions***

Venezuelan Election Numbers Rant

1. La oposición venezolana publicó en internet su base de datos completa, con los resultados detallados y las actas de 24.532 urnas, 81,7% del total. Son actas originales escaneadas, con código QR, clave de verificación y las firmas de los testigos, como esta que elegí al azar:

The Economist just published a deeply-researched story about car bloat, and it's very, very damning: "For every life that the heaviest 1% of SUVs and trucks save, there are more than a dozen lives lost in other vehicles." Well worth your time: economist.com/interactive/un…

The Nobel for Econsplaining ft.com/content/1e2584… via @ft

The Nobel for Econsplaining ft.com/content/1e2584… via @ft

Countries’ exports tend to be `nested’, i.e. poor countries systematically specialize in simple products while rich countries export both complex & simple ones. I show how quality differentiation can drive this pattern, with significant implications. doi.org/10.1016/j.euro… 1/13

To me, this is a pretty clear sign that global leadership is very unmeritocratic. To a first order, going to an elite college is a function of choices made by kids' parents, not the kids themselves. Talented parents may have more talented kids, but there's no way the talent

Exploring how Nietzsche's 'beast with red cheeks' and Japan's Namahage folklore reveal our deep-rooted moral instincts. A blog post inspired by Fukuyama's work: medium.com/@GomezLievano/…

Post the best “drone” videos here. Let’s get to the bottom of this. Every single video I’ve analyzed of this phenomenon has been either a normal helicopter or plane. I’m open to being proven wrong, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

My latest post on Medium: "Anthropomania: The Eighth Capital Sin of Obsessing Over People and Humanity" medium.com/@GomezLievano/…

Economics offers a set of boxes that one can check to assess the viability of projects. Collective or team tacit knowledge is just not one of them. In this month’s Project Syndicate op-ed, I argue that Sweden’s Northvolt defaulted because of it. project-syndicate.org/commentary/how…

Great news! Ricardo Hausmann’s work and honour have been vindicated. Allegations made against him were completely false: there was NO plagiarism or academic misconduct of any kind. Congratulations to @Ricardo_Hausman and his team! thecrimson.com/article/2025/2…

Michael Jordan gave a short, excellent, and provocative talk recently in Paris - here's a few key ideas - It's all just machine learning (ML) - the AI moniker is hype - The late Dave Rumelhart should've received a Nobel prize for his early ideas on making backprop work 1/n

I don’t want to connect my coffee machine to the wifi network. I don’t want to share the file with OneDrive. I don’t want to download an app to check my car’s fluid levels. I don’t want to scan a QR code to view the restaurant menu. I don’t want to let Google know my location

Do you have what it takes to forecast International trade? Today, we are launching AI4trade, a global challenge where teams compete for cash prizes by submitting their best trade forecasts. But it comes with a couple of twists: 1. This is a future out-of-sample challenge, so

I was expecting to hate Tim Hartford's piece, which essentially says that the math in economics "feels wrong" for the subject. But I liked it! He's right. Today's economics does invest a lot of its mathematical effort in the wrong stuff. Thread 1/