This chart couldn’t be more relevant for what’s unfolding right now. Agricultural commodities are starting to move, but the real move hasn’t happened yet. As energy prices settle at higher levels — much like metals already have — I expect agricultural commodities to begin

Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets in a Multipolar World 2026 Coal $CNR +33% Oil & Gas $XOP +33% Natural Gas $FCG +27% Gold $GLD +16% Uranium $URNM +16% Silver $SIL +13% Copper $COPX +6% Nasdaq $QQQ -3% Mag 7 $MAGS -9% Banks $KBWB -10% Bitcoin $IBIT -19%

Keep an eye on coal, as more Asian nations turn to it to replace natural gas / fuel oil in power generation. Philippines said that it’s likely to burn more coal in the next few months. And India’s government said all was ready for “unprecedented” coal demand in 2026.

CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since Trump came into office)

Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 44% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=L3o7T1…

Why The Fertilizer Crisis May Spark Record Inflows Into Agri ETFs zerohedge.com/commodities/go…

Fertilizer prices are skyrocketing: New Orleans granular urea prices, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, are up +89% since December, to $660 per short ton, the highest since September 2022. By comparison, the 2022 peak during the Russia-Ukraine war was $910 per short

Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months.

They said that in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and now 2026, credibility cratering....

*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS can't print oil

For the first time since the war started, WTI oil has settled above the $100-a-barrel threshold. It’s the first triple-digit settlement since 2022, when it closed above that level for >80 trading days. To match that, WTI would need to remain >$100 everyday until late July.

Déjà vu. Mining stocks breaking out again after a 25% correction. Secular bull markets don’t move in a straight line — they come with multiple pullbacks. Stay focused on the bigger picture, or volatility will shake you out. tavicosta.substack.com/p/gold-time-to…

*DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008

Ladies and gentlemen: Stagflation at record debt levels. Now imagine being forced to cut rates as inflation reaccelerates. Real assets are about to get very interesting. open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

Gold soars: finally rises above the post war/Turkey liquidation resistance. Asian buying will be on fire.

Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like.

Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since May 2022, rising 53% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=1Q3qPE…

70% Of US Farmers Say That They Won't Be Able To Buy All The Fertilizer They Need In 2026 zerohedge.com/geopolitical/7…

No matter how long you expect the war to last, the chart below doesn’t look like the end of a move. If anything, the setup still appears quite explosive. This marks the beginning of a new regime of structurally higher energy prices, in my view. tavicosta.substack.com/p/energy-the-c…

Agricultural commodities are now breaking out decisively from nearly 20-year resistance. Just as expected: When energy moves, food prices tend to follow. This is deeply concerning for society, yet it aligns with the broader macro trend. People will point to isolated