There's a sizeable disparity btwn the headline economic data (not to mention the stock market) and how (most) Americans are feeling about their own prospects. Charles V Payne has been on this for a while- it is one of the many reasons why joining his show is such a pleasure & privilege

Are you ever watching your kid doing something sketchy across the room and just immediately think "Oh man, this is how accidents happen..." (Great chart/point from Alpine Macro)

Could be 1 cut, could be 0, could be 2 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ How every econ team is thinking 'bout cut forecasts right now(we're discussing 3 as a good possibility too) *FED'S HARKER: ONE CUT IN 2024 IF ECONOMY EVOLVES AS EXPECTED... TWO OR NO CUTS IN 2024 REMAIN POSSIBLE AMID UNCERTAINTY

US federal interest payments now exceed the defense budget.

I really like how Gregory Daco frames this: "...recalibrate monetary policy to today's reality". We are with Greg that a September rate cut "makes sense" and with Ian Shepherdson that the Fed is behind the curve as they look backwards not forward.

I'm going to say it every day: the magnitude of the move can be a debate, but the direction of the U.S. economy shouldn't be. Nancy Lazar (Piper Sandler) showing real nonfin corporate revenues lead consumer spending because "they drive jobs & wages, and therefore spending".

There's opinions and extrapolating... and then there's the data. David Rosenberg knows the data. Real retail sales *fell* 4.4% annualized in Q1. They are so far on track for another (small) decline. This is not a "no landing" consumer.

Finally, a different take on 🇨🇦productivity. And, amazingly, on a topic typically quite depressing, I am somehow feeling hopeful about what Canada can produce ahead (with the right approach). Thanks for that pick-me up @carmichaelkevin ! #paywall thelogic.co/comment/carmic…

Saving this one for 🇨🇦 day coming up !

🇺🇸 US Conference Board Leading Economic Index -14.1% off its previous peak. In #recession territory! Chart: VettaFi

Why the Economy Is at a "Tipping Point" Frances Donald joins tom keene on Bloomberg Surveillance. Get more on the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast: Apple: trib.al/0yYiPSM Spotify: trib.al/YbRTHry Anywhere: trib.al/CSOU106 Get more on the Bloombe

For two years, I've heard the term "normalizing" as the economy slowed... not "slowing from the highs", but "normalizing". Now, most economic data is back to the levels it was pre-COVID. So... what comes after "normal?"

State-level unemployment rates are calculating in a more holistic manner than the national unemployment rate. BCA’s Mel Rule mirrors the Sahm rule except that it is based on state data. The Mel Rule has now been triggered, suggesting that a recession is likely.

Exactly, Charles. A ball doesn’t roll halfway down a hill and then pause. Economies run on momentum.

Return to office has moms quitting their jobs. Why aren’t Americans having kids? Even if you can afford them you can’t logistically raise them and work and have sanity - can’t afford childcare or can’t drop off kids early enough at daycare to go into work on time / for early

Hawkish: Queen Elsa (from Frozen) - central planner by nature but on her own agenda Dovish: Woody (from Toy Story) - leader trying to take care of everybody but sometimes too soft

With recent data in U.S. jobs, housing, investment...we can debate about the magnitude of the declines ahead for the U.S. economy, but not the direction. We may have been in Goldilocks... but the porridge is about to be too cold.

⚠️Macro lingo switch imminent. "Normalization" (not "weakening") is out (I hope) "Recalibration" (not "easing") is on its way in. Nice chart from Goldman Sachs that just about every mon. policy 'rule' says policy is too tight and needs to be... ahem... recalibrated

🤔Interesting to see everyone waking up to the notion monetary policy recalibration after Powell mentioned "recalibrate" 9 times during his press conference. I was highlighting the need to recalibrate policy three months ago 👇 x.com/francesdonald/…

Oooh it feels good to be back with the BSurveillance team. And anytime I can throw in a "football mom" reference, you know I'm going to do it.