Gotta give solar credit where its due. The Northeast is straining under a few 100-degree days. In 2023, Texas hit 100+ for 24 days straight. 24 days in a row. Solar performs in the summer.

Seen this logic a few times: Battery cost needs to be added to cost of solar to get “true cost” since solar needs backup. Isn’t this the case with coal/gas? Not to the same degree, but all CCGT/coal needs peakers. There is no resource that operates 100% and is dispatchable.

Interesting discussion re: hyperscalers and CCGTs. To bring it full circle: New-build CCGTs need long-term fixed power pricing. But, nobody wants to take long-term gas price risk. Hyperscalers won't write heat rate call options; would write PPAs. PPAs don't fix CCGTs gas risk.

Received a few questions related to this, so I pulled together some thoughts in a more organized format. balancingauthority.substack.com/p/the-grid-nee…

Cheap money doesn’t fix the core issue - the market signal isn’t there.

Great thread. Obvious follow up is why publicly traded IPPs are priced as if forwards are at that premium? A) Public investors think the prices will rise to that level? OR B) They think that all of the IPPs capacity will be contracted with data centers?

Following up on an interesting discussion over the weekend. PJM's capacity market, the "Base Residual Auction", was designed to be a residual market. Here's what PJM's CEO said on the topic.

Great commentary from Constellation and great find from Shanu Mathew: Gas plants want long term fixed pricing. But it’s hard to do because of uncertainty around fuel expense. This isn’t zero marginal cost renewables where you can easily sign a 15-20 year PPA.