All else being equal, we'd return to pre-pandemic 2019 housing affordability levels... IF U.S. incomes spiked 56% IF U.S. home prices fell 35% IF mortgage rates fell 3.50 percentage points (from 6.15% to 2.65%)

Reminder: In bubble-heavy Sun Belt markets, homes were underwater for a decade+ after the GFC. Phoenix • Prices peaked in 2006 • Didn’t regain nominal highs until ~2017 → ~11 years underwater Las Vegas • One of the worst housing crashes ever • Nominal recovery took ~10–11

"A record defined by fairness, firmness, and faithfulness to the Constitution." Convicted of soliciting over $70K for a memorial to fallen police officers, but instead using $ for personal expenses. Inexplicably pardoned by POTUS. Currently suspended from bench by state panel.

The U.S. spends ~$35–40k per senior vs ~$6–8k per child each year. ~5–6× difference. Adults 55+ control ~70% of U.S. wealth. Mortgage payments are ~50–60% higher than pre-2020 for first-time buyers. U.S. fertility rate: ~1.6 Replacement rate: 2.1 Federal debt: ~120% of GDP

If you want to understand what’s happening in the housing market, this is a very good explanation- Btw. Most builders have significant backlog of standing inventory.

Lack of supply isn’t the issue for housing right now, far from it actually.

The high cost of child care is making mothers rethink having kids thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-hi…

OPINION: Which party will voters dislike more this year? thenevadaindependent.com/article/opinio…

Fewer babies, and less family formation, is structurally reducing the demand to buy houses. This is a full-scale demographic reset that few are paying attention to. In less than a decade, the U.S. birth rate will likely cross below the death rate. Back in 1991, the U.S. had

HOMEBUILDER MARGIN COMPRESSION The reason? Bigger incentives "We increased our sales incentives during the first quarter, and we expect incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2026" - Paul Romanowski, CEO of D.R. Horton, said during their January 20, 2025 earnings call

"Three years after NV school leaders celebrated a historical, 26% K-12 education funding increase, a number of their districts now face financial outlooks so dire that at least one is eligible for a state takeover... Great statewide look at district funding, via Rocío Hernández.

It is outrageous that people like this are in elected positions - go home. The American people deserve better. Disgusting. Those making this happen should be in jail.

An American goes to the ER for high blood pressure. He’s there less than TWO hours. No surgery. No scans. The bill comes back at $41,297 — even AFTER he’s paid his FULL out-of-pocket max. This isn’t healthcare — it’s legalized extortion.

Nevada’s legal cannabis sales dropped 9 percent in 2025. Regulators are considering whether heavy taxation is putting businesses at too much of a disadvantage against the black market. Howard Stutz has the story: thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada…

The thread MGM Resorts and Nevada Gaming Control Board are busy ignoring as they continue to enable David Copperfield.

“The forbearance rate is rising rapidly among stressed FHA borrowers, with 56% of FHA mortgages that are 90+ days delinquent & under foreclosure protection now in forbearance, the highest share in more than four years.” cc Melody Wright John Comiskey (((The Daily Shot))) ICE Mortgage Technology

Danielle DiMartino Booth Melody Wright (((The Daily Shot))) ICE Mortgage Technology Serious Delinquency Rate up 40% on the 7.1m/8.2m FHAs in MBS over the last 3 months. Remarkable what happens to that rate when "cures" through partial claims and loan mods are temporarily unavailable (PCs and mods must complete 3 trial payments first)

KB Home: "Our costs are actually down on direct vertical construction cost about -6% year-over-year."

Home prices are now 5x annual income. Is this sustainable?

Phoenix Arizona housing market continues to fall Now reflects the worst housing market since the Great Financial Crisis