My favorite pollster is the Mexican peso. In 2016, it priced the US election outcome hours before AP called it.

My favorite pollster may already be pricing in the US 2024 election outcome . MXN was about 20% weaker into 2016 outcome, as now...

My colleagues and I just returned from IMF Spring meetings, meeting with finance, central bank, and other officials from around the world, along with other market participants. Here are some key takeaways (full piece to be published later): The Era of EM Exceptionalism · Dollar