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I am extremely proud to share that my new report "DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race" has just been published by CSIS! This report is chock full of previously not-public information and analysis connecting dozens of data points to assess

This is Wall Street’s version of the Braveheart “Freedom!” speech:

1/ I’m now on X and have a blog – the first post is about how countries use their productive capacity to increase their national power.

Yesterday I had the pleasure to give a presentation at the European Central Bank about European defense. The discussion was very interesting and enriching. Here are a couple of points that I made during & after the presentation:

This week’s blog is about what to read if you’re a) interested in the history of AI, and b) want to go deeper than popular accounts. I wrote about five books covering technical history, philosophy of science, and practitioner perspectives. Link to full piece below 🖱️

Can you believe that it's already been 15 years since we first heard about Stuxnet? And perhaps 25 years since Stuxnet components were first developed? Cyber is no longer emerging. It has emerged. My new article in J Strategic Studies revisits this seminal case.

"Democracies don't go to war", they say. Tell that to Athens & Syracuse. Super cool analysis of ancient Greek city-states suggests that democracies actually fought more battles! cc early modern boy-actress (they/them) Patrick Wyman

A good overview of why monitoring space weather is important for both terrestrial and space activities thespacereview.com/article/4974/1

The Chinese Communist Party announces its intentions in code but not in secret. CCP policy decisions are coded in in tifa 提法, usually translated as "slogan" or "formulation," and shared in open channels. My latest RAND report discusses how to read these tifa:

A giant of mathematics and among the last of the heroic generation. Two days ago Garwin at 97, now Lax at 99. The world is a poorer place. nytimes.com/2025/05/16/sci…

A few chapters in Duncan Weldon's new book, and I'm hooked 🙂

One of the most beautiful images of Venus captured by the Japanese Akatsuki spacecraft's IR2 camera 📸

50 free copies of my article, "Hunting the Red Bear: Satellite Reconnaissance and the 'Second Offset Strategy' in the Late Cold War" are available here: tandfonline.com/eprint/MG7WPKJ…

NEW on Orders and Observations: How do Chinese drone swarms actually work? My new article is a technical deep dive into the C4ISR architecture behind PLA autonomous airpower. We deconstruct the datalinks, edge AI hardware, and algorithms that make these systems possible. Part 1

Amazing graph by The New York Times on locating global AI date centers.

Big news: "Leapfrog" is now "Choosing Victory." In just 10 days, we've picked up 200 subscribers — including four sitting U.S. and foreign ambassadors. ➡️ Follow along as we explore the decision points shaping U.S.-China rivalry: choosingvictory.substack.com

Spanish mathematician Javier Gómez Serrano and Google DeepMind team up to solve the Navier-Stokes million-dollar problem | Science | EL PAÍS English share.google/RF4iMqkQfE3Cpb…

The Russian state’s monopoly on vodka meant that by the eve of the First World War, it was providing just under a fifth of total revenue. The French tobacco monopoly accounted for over 7% of revenue at its peak in the eighteenth century. [from Niall Ferguson's Cash Nexus]

Goldman Sachs has a new report: "Powering the AI Era"