Regular Reminder Please don’t interpret a “statistically insignificant” variable (i.e., p > 0.05) as having “no effect.” Instead, check whether the 90% CI excludes all meaningful effects. Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111… PDF: carlislerainey.com/papers/nme.pdf

First run in Italy! It was a little rough because it was also my first run in a week, but boy was it beautiful

It’s the 1st day of Pride Month🌈 & I'm proud to share my new JOP article. Using a survey experiment, I show: Republicans still penalize gay candidates. Democrats do not—but they do penalize even subtle gender nonconformity, demanding that gay candidates look & sound “straight"

my article for Ethnic and Racial Studies is finally available online. in the article, I overview some of my dissertation findings, urge us to rethink how we think about Latino conservatism and study "Latino politics," and, finally, offer some of my thoughts on the 2024 elections.

Thank you, Ryan Mason 🤍

Had a fun chat with American Political Science Review about our recently published paper. We discussed its background, implications and limitations.

Post class snack

New extremely relevant research from me & Kal w/r/t the Senate's current plans to sell off public lands. We find that rural and urban Americans alike are largely supportive of federally-managed public lands, only a small minority of rurally resentful Americans are not.

Jack O’Connell in 28YL being like “hold…hold…a’fucking GO” runs through my head oh repeat

Jack O’Connell should win an Oscar for 28 Years Later simply for his delivery of “a-fucking-go” alone

And just like that, classes for my study abroad program are over! Time to enjoy my last couple days in Florence before catching up on grading

Another important report working to correct the popular—yet incorrect—belief that (limited) retrenchment frequently paves the way for rival gains. For my own contribution to the debate in European Journal of International Security, see: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

It’s an honor to share that I have successfully defended my dissertation, “Which Shepherds to Follow?: Cross-Pressures Catholic Politics in a Polarized America.” Next, I am thrilled to join the Government Department Smith College as a Visiting Assistant Professor this fall!

Thermostatic public opinion wins again.

💸 How should scholars measure early money in campaigns? Our new PSRM Journal article in FirstView (w/ Colin Case) offers a theoretical and empirical framework, as well as practical guidance for working with FEC data 🔗doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2…

Thank you so much to APSA and to Professors Wendy Martinek, Alyx Mark, and Rachel Stern for recognizing my dissertation with the 2025 Edward S. Corwin Award

Excited to share my new article in Political Behavior! If people cared more about the future, would they support policies to address long-term issues like climate change? tldr: Life experiences shape future-orientation and climate policy support. 🧵⬇️

This article combines panel data + DiD + experiments to provide new causal evidence on how life experiences shape time horizons and climate policy support. You can read it here (open access): link.springer.com/article/10.100…

#OpenAccess from American Political Science Review - State Legitimacy and Sector-Level Claim-Making: Evidence from East Jerusalem - cup.org/45eDJ9G - HANNAH E. BAGDANOV (University of Notre Dame) #FirstView

Thrilled to share that my article on state legitimacy and claim-making in East Jerusalem is available #OpenAccess on #FirstView in American Political Science Review. Check it out!