Antifragile Thinking (@unseenvalue) 's Twitter Profile
Antifragile Thinking

@unseenvalue

Playing for the unseen upside of randomness, volatility, and variability | Author: Framing Business Uncertainty antifragilethinking.substack.com

ID: 796473633069789184

calendar_today09-11-2016 22:04:46

26,26K Tweet

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Upton Sinclair famously observed: It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it! Syngene has significant hurdles ahead (as recently discussed with the Antifragile community). How can it be a buy? Is the rating

Upton Sinclair famously observed: It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!

Syngene has significant hurdles ahead (as recently discussed with the Antifragile community). 
How can it be a buy? 
Is the rating
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a) Margin of safety is always in valuations for 3-6M trade b) Margin of safety is always in the "people/management" for 3-6Y investment horizon c) Know when to focus on absolute cheapness in valuations and when to focus on the leadership and not be fooled by optical cheapness!

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The word 'peptide' was used 3 times in the F24 annual report. The word 'peptide' was used 23 times in the F25 annual report. That's more than 7 bagger :) #DIVISLAB

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Don’t get carried away in the “CDMO Anthem chorus”. Markets anyway are ripe for correction and sudden 10-20% falls are very likely and normal. Old investors of CDMO theme will gain the most as their entry levels were dirt cheap. Patience to hold will now be tested!

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Laurus Labs tested the courage to buy in 2023. The pessimism and mocking was at peak when stock was hitting the bottom. Those who passed the courage test, will now face the patience to hold, ignore the noise and bogus gyan. Once you’ve bought right, you ought to sit tight!

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Never appreciate someone when their stock is doing well and sitting at a lifetime high. Appreciate them for sharing a falling stock that's offering value when the crowd is bearish, finding faults, and highlighting known risks. Real risks are unseen and unknown.

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Annual reports make it appear that converting a CRO into a manufacturing CDMO is easy. I haven't seen CDMOs aspire to be CROs. Why is that? Manufacturing (CDMO) offers far superior operating leverage and stickiness compared to a CRO under threat from Gen AI. #Syngene's bubble!

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Circa 2.5x P/S for AAA management was 'unseen value'. Resist buying fresh into a CDMO that exceeds 10x P/S unless you can confidently envision the next 30 years of certainty and growth, a feat that is nearly unattainable for ordinary individuals. We're not gods ... #LaurusLabs

Circa 2.5x P/S for AAA management was 'unseen value'.

Resist buying fresh into a CDMO that exceeds 10x P/S unless you can confidently envision the next 30 years of certainty and growth, a feat that is nearly unattainable for ordinary individuals. We're not gods ...

#LaurusLabs
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Institutional volumes create generous exits for smart retailers in all expensive IPOs that open at a premium to the offer price and then become even more expensive within a few days of listing. In the past 4–5 years, there have been truckloads of examples from Clean Science to

Institutional volumes create generous exits for smart retailers in all expensive IPOs that open at a premium to the offer price and then become even more expensive within a few days of listing. In the past 4–5 years, there have been truckloads of examples from Clean Science to