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Great work, but it’s puzzling that Ecma - in less than a decade - has switched from outright rejecting the idea of rational bubbles on the basis of Santos and Woodford (Ecma, 1997) to accepting rational bubbles without even a cite to that paper. Why?Econometrica

Well known, but not among all economists: Bayes' law implies a form of Occam's razor. Reason: P(theory|data) = P(data|theory)P(theory). If theory1 predicts your data is the only possible one, then P(data|theory1)=1. If theory2 predicts many possible datasets, then (1/2)

Lior and I wrote a blog post about what it was like for me to find occurrences of duplicated (and seemingly manipulated) data as a first-year graduate student at Caltech. I am speaking openly because I believe that we, as the scientific community, can do better.

Today I was fired from the Wall Street Journal. This is my statement:

🙌 SIOE is econ and interdisciplinary, in the best way — to get an idea of the really creative papers we see each year, check out the most recent conference program: call.sioe.org/program/chicago PS — next year we’re in Australia!

Massive OpenResearch basic income papers are out (Sarah Miller David Broockman Eva Vivalt AlexBartik Elizabeth Rhodes). Very much worth reading - my view is that it is an incredible RCT and an incredible disappointment. RCT was USD11400/yr for 3 years, 1k treatment, 2k control. 1/x

Do Ukrainians refuse peace because they are unwilling to trade territory? New polls show territory is not the issue. But Ukrainians won't accept any peace deal without solid security guarantees, fearing the next Russian invasion will be worse than the current one 1/

Spot the outlier. (Kamala Harris to win US presidential election).

The big sell of Bitcoin is that it somehow “democratizes” money. Reality is that BIT is extremely concentrated in a few very large, very rich players. mitsloan.mit.edu/sites/default/… These players are using vast resources to lobby politicians/orgs to adopt BIT. Then they’ll cash out.

Disagree. Dividing and discouraging liberals and intellectuals is a win for the other side. Let’s not be x-ed!

Wealth shocks from lotteries reduce support for wealth, real-estate, and inheritance taxes but have no discernible effects on overall ideology or political participation, from Brännlund, David Cesarini, Lindgren, Erik Lindqvist, Oskarsson, and Robert Östling nber.org/papers/w32777

Elon Musk satisfied the demands and provided a list of shareholders of "X Holding Corp", who helped the billionaire buy Twitter. Among them are Petr Aven and Vadim Moshkovich. Petr Aven is a Russian billionaire, founder of Alfa Group, one of the main wallets for Putin. Aven is

"Francesca Gino's Libel Claims Against Harvard Business School and Data Colada Dismissed." reason.com/volokh/2024/09…

Är en bubbla sju gånger större än USAs BNP något att oroa sig för? Erik Öberg verkar tycka det, men det gör inte Tore Ellingsen och David Domeij. ekonomistas.se/2024/09/30/en-…

Looking forward to our symposium next week Stockholm School of Economics. A scaling workshop followed by an academic conference....freely open to everyone! Details here: hhs.se/sv/forskning/f… Many thanks to Karl Wennberg Tore Ellingsen Robert Östling AstraZeneca’s Per Alfredsson &

I’m staying. Time to double down and buttress platforms and institutions.

For those who are interested, here are the Nobel prize lectures in economics. Thank you. youtube.com/live/YcuxbYUW8…