My thoughts here for the The New York Times on the RSF parallel govt announcement in #Sudan: nytimes.com/2025/07/27/wor…

NEW BRIEFING | A Curse of Gold: Mining and Violence in Venezuela’s South Illegal gold mining is doing growing damage to southern Venezuela. Curbing this harm is up to Caracas but foreign capitals should use whatever means they can to send this message. crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…

‘Only a massive, UN-led humanitarian response enabled by an end to fighting can stem this spiralling horror.’ Our experts explain how Israel’s starvation experiment is reaching its inevitable, deadly conclusion in Gaza. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Appreciated speaking to Michael Crowley for this piece on Gaza and the United States' long and halting struggle to develop an atrocity prevention policy. Though as Stephen Wertheim notes, Gaza is as much about complicity as a failure of prevention. nytimes.com/2025/07/30/us/…

And in a parallel universe. "The scope and gravity of the recent policies, practices, and actions of the Government of Brazil constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat" whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

80 years since Hiroshima, the taboo on nuclear use still holds - but it is fraying. In Ukraine, South Asia, and the Koreas, the risk of miscalculation is growing. Risk reduction measures can no longer be delayed. My latest for Foreign Policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/hir…

➡️Six months into second Trump administration, what is 🇺🇸doing for Ukraine? ➡️What is best realistic scenario for Ukraine at end of the summer offensive & further down the road? ➡️How much support does Zelenskyy still enjoy among Ukrainians? ~ Lucian Kim crisisgroup.org/europe-central…

Ukrainians say they are determined to fight on, but Ukraine is in a difficult spot. Russia retains two important advantages that suggest it is on a winning trajectory. Lucian Kim explains how. crisisgroup.org/europe-central…

Thanks to The GCSP for republishing my Crisis Group piece on "The Twilight of International Peacemaking Institutions", which started life as an online talk for GCSP in May. gcsp.ch/news/twilight-…

1/ THREAD 🧵 The mandate for #UNIFIL, #Lebanon’s UN peacekeeping mission, ends on 31 Aug. The U.S. wants to extend UNIFIL for just one more year, so the mission can focus on wrapping up its operations by Aug 2026. But this would be a mistake.

As it works to protect its interests Manila will need to walk a careful line between diplomacy and deterrence. Here’s what should be done as friction with China threatens to increase. crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific/s…

crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/ev… In case you missed it - please register, and see you online in a week, for a discussion on Manila's shift to external defence.

Rising temperatures, sporadic rainfall, over-extraction and poor planning have converged to make water scarcity a major crisis in Sistan and Baluchestan – and a pressing concern across Iran. Our latest report on grievance and governance in Baluchestan: crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Excellent panel discussions with Valerie Niquet, Trita Parsi, Stephen Pomper and Henry Huiyao WANG 王辉耀 on the future of alliances and with Edouard Bugnion 🇨🇭, asad ramzanali, Marietje Schaake and Scott Singer (宋杰) on the power of new disruptive technologies like AI at today’s Ambassadors’ Conference. #Boko2025

Europe gets so much grief for division and weakness. But its recent handling of Trump, its unity (w/Starmer), smart coordination (w/Zelensky) and inclusivity (w/Meloni) show it at its best. Nobody in 🇫🇷 will credit Macron, but he has played no small part nytimes.com/2025/08/19/wor…

Mali has arrested some of its soldiers and a French citizen following what it called a “destabilisation attempt”, accusing France of complicity. What’s behind the crackdown? Our latest Crisis Group analysis ⬇️ crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/m…

🇲🇱 ‘By sidelining dissenting voices and discarding any transition timetable, the military regime risks provoking opposition not only from civil society and the political class but also from within its own ranks.’ Crisis Group Sahel on sweeping arrests in Mali. crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/m…

If you are feeling daily diplomatic whiplash over talks with #Russia and #Ukraine, Crisis Group has a sage and clear-eyed view of the state of play 👀 crisisgroup.org/europe-central…

Don’t agree with everything in here, but it’s a thoughtful overview of the state of affairs and the actual prospects for progress.

By this time next week, the E3 🇫🇷🇬🇧🇩🇪 will have made a decision on whether to trigger UNSCR 2231’s “snapback” mechanism based on 🇮🇷’s non-compliance with the JCPOA. As if often the case, last minute maneuvering afoot [Thread].