a voter in North Carolina tells CNN he wasn't going to vote but did when his girlfriend told him if he didn't vote for Harris she would break up with him

Exit polls are enticing droplets of data in a desert of actual news, but please do not draw overconfident narratives from them -- esp. at subgroup level. (In '22, the nat'l Latino result in exits had little to do w/ battleground results.)

Do you remember when "52% of white women voted for Trump", per the exits -- except they didn't? (h/t Spooky Charlotte Swasey) time.com/5422644/trump-…

Coming in, these were my expectations for Latino shifts. Erosion, but not realignment. In results, I'm looking for data that updates these priors. Esp. where it matters. Also: we expect it to be largely about gender: we had Latino men at 50-50, compared to 56-44 estimate for '20

Equis will have precinct analysis once there is enough precinct data to get a read on Latinos in the battleground. Prepare for a long haul. Here’s part of our internal results tracker. Expect meaningful returns starting tomorrow for states where this matters most.

I might say, the part of the evening where 364 days of the year, “commentators and experts” who don’t pay attention to our community but somehow become experts on election night. So infuriating.

Latinos are at most 5% of voters in PA, such that 1 pt of white support in PA is the equivalent of... 19 pts in Latino support. Moreover, shifts among non-white voters were known. It is white under-performance that is a surprise. If you want to place blame, pls show your work

White hosts tripping over themselves to explain the Latino and Latina vote while not having one Latino or Latina host in their newsroom while neglecting to mention that the majority of white men and women voted for Trump 📌

It should be clear by now that Harris was done in by wide-spread discontent. I understand why ppl pounced on eye-popping #s among Latinos in places like NJ & TX. But Trump didn't win any of PA/WI/MI/NC/GA *b/c* of Latinos. To say so was irresponsible -- & bad political analysis.

Absolutely cruel and unnecessary. You are part of the problem David Corn and Mother Jones and MSNBC should cease giving you a platform for this kind of this racist vitriol.

1. All politics is identity politics. 2. There are clunky vs. resonant ways to do it. 3. Progressives need to speak to economic identities, not just ethnic ones. 4. If Dems were to cede to the forces of racial depolarization, they'd be cooked for the foreseeable future.

Sharing a preliminary, step-back look at Latino shifts based on precincts & dense locales… Before I do, remember: we should study big Latino shifts, but that is separate from a diagnosis of how Trump won, which can't be reduced to any single demo. x.com/carlosodio/sta…

These types of critiques feel like shadow-boxing to me, disconnected from how '24 campaigns were actually run. Trump & Ruben Gallego played identity politics more than Harris did. But send me the memo, Seth London

*Clark County, NV*: Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row. Rosen (like Gallego in AZ) came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.

This is cool: cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV) allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot. Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped. (And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)

🚨 NEW Equis Research poll out today covering the latest from Latinos on Trump and the economy. Check out the full public memo here: weareequis.us/research/2025-…

The TL;DR: Latinos are facing significant everyday economic challenges, and are looking for relief in the places they feel the squeeze the most, from groceries to healthcare. They’re losing faith in Trump as a good businessman and in his ability to handle the economy.

Latinos favor increasing taxes for billionaires and big corporations over cutting social programs as a way to offset spending – precisely the opposite of the Trump administration’s approach.

But many Latinos maintain a “wait-and-see” posture. And while Democrats gained trust on economic issues following the inauguration, there is a rising cynicism toward *both* major parties among swing Latino voters.

ICYMI: Our latest poll at Equis Research shows signs that Trump’s businessman image may be eroding among Latinos, and they’re losing faith in his ability to handle the economy.