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Over the next year, Split Ticket will be collaborating with the Washington Post for an elections column. For our first piece, we discuss the impact moderation had on the 2024 election downballot, and how ideological extremism costs votes. wapo.st/3EQgLL4

"The 2024 election was unusual in many ways," write Harrison Lavelle and Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket. Yet one aspect should not surprise anyone, though it will rankle some who wish it was not true: wapo.st/4kbzl0p

Four months from the 2024 election, Split Ticket presents the 2024 SHAVE, or the national generic House vote estimate. Republicans would have won the House popular vote by 2.15%, about half a percent over Donald Trump's performance in the 50 states. split-ticket.org/2025/03/05/wha…

Are moderates more electable? To answer this question, we took a deep dive into the last four cycles of elections, using our WAR metric, and then examined caucus groupings and voting ideology to try and answer the question conclusively. split-ticket.org/2025/03/17/are…

Senate Democrats have tried backing independents in red states as a way of expanding a difficult map. The data suggests this strategy may have merits — but not all states are equal, and some are more receptive to the notion than othres. split-ticket.org/2025/03/26/whe…

We take a look at the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between Brad Schimel and Susan Crawford, with Lakshya Jain and guest writer Giacomo Pensa. The turnout looks good for Democrats, but it's more indicative of a deeper coalitional issue for the Wisconsin GOP. split-ticket.org/2025/03/31/wis…

🚨 NEW Split Ticket piece in the Washington Post: For the first time, Donald Trump has turned the economy into an outright liability for him, and surveys show that even his own voters are not enthused by the tariff chaos. wapo.st/4igCoCn

"Trump’s promised protectionist push has opened cracks in the Republican coalition," Leon Sit and Max of Split Ticket write. wapo.st/42Brv8v

The story of Wisconsin's Supreme Court election was turnout — while the state went from Trump +1 to Crawford +10 within 6 months, the large majority of that shift was driven by changes in who was voting, rather than voters changing their minds. split-ticket.org/2025/04/21/how…

ICYMI: Split Ticket continued its collaboration with the Washington Post with a piece on how Trump's gains were disproportionately large in immigrant neighborhoods. wapo.st/4jbc1yg

Voters do not like Democrats. But it might not matter much for 2026. In our latest piece as part of our Washington Post collaboration, Max and Armin Thomas explore the odd phenomenon of midterm backlash and explain why current numbers can mislead. wapo.st/3Fppkx3

From the latest iteration in our collaboration with Washington Post Opinions: Catalist's data shines a new light on 2024, and suggests the election was even wilder and much more counterintuitive than the exit polls (and the takes around them) would imply. wapo.st/4k6xwBJ

The real reason Democrats can't compete for 60 Senate seats isn't just the "structural bias of the Senate". It's because ticket splitting collapsed over the last decade. Using our WAR models, we can show how the impact of candidate quality has plummeted. split-ticket.org/2025/06/07/the…

Split Ticket will be hosting a space to discuss the results of today’s primary elections in New Jersey as they come in.

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