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There is currently a debate in NATO, to be firmed up at next week’s def ministers meeting, on timeline for 3.5%: early 2030s or later. The direction of that debate suggests UK will have to shift, & quickly, on this timeline. Because you obviously can’t do 3% to 3.5% in 2034-35.

Finnish DM: Best way to counter hybrid action is to lay a red line somewhere. Threat will grow & grow. Doesn’t specify where red lines should lie or what consequences it should trigger. But Fr DM contrasts cyber attacks on a hospital v 300-400 hospitals (“act of war”) #SLD2025

Shashank Joshi Head of DPA Zhumadilov believes 10mn is quite aspirational, as he said in my podcast w him last week. 7-8mn more realistic, problem being enough drone operators in either case. Still, major leap from ~2mn in 2024. Podcast to be published next week.

Having asked a wide range of ppl about nuclear signals in this crisis, I’ve found little of note other than the (real) Pakistani statement on convening the nuclear command authority. It was largely the speed of conventional escalation that worried outsiders, as far as I can tell.

Yes, but if you take the elements of what is included in that 5% figure as it’s being discussed in a NATO context today then I promise you that Japan would be deemed to spend far, far more than 1.4% of GDP on defence. We have to compare like with like.

“The [defence] review, which will be published after nearly a year, consists of 48,000 words and is about 130 pages long” thetimes.com/uk/defence/art…

NEW: We've anatomized the entire Unit 29155 hacking team, including its founder, who was previously indicted in the U.S. for cyber crimes unrelated to espionage. Here be sex, lies, and server logs, all of which we obtained. Plus a Bulgarian journalist recruited to peddle