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Ordinary intuitions about physical stuff can be very reliable in our usual contexts, yet completely wrong in the wider universe. Similarly, moral intuitions can be good guides in our usual social worlds, yet generalize badly to all possible social worlds. overcomingbias.com/p/intuitions-h…

The other day, as some midwits nagged me, for the nth time, about violating some custom they thought was important, I had a realization. There's a dangerous assumption in the idea of Chesterton's Fence. All of these fences, all of these millennia old social norms lying around

Isn't the answer that women are prettier, but that men are more attractive overall, at least re the upper tail of their distributions?

Surely he knows about his options, and this is what he has chosen, and continues to choose; he could quit anytime. Many envy him, but many who had his option choose otherwise.

I hear OpenAI is funded to buy up huge % of AI chips for a while, betting that though chip prices are falling they'll get a big first mover advantage from having had more chips first. Is that what the rest of you see? Is this sensible if AI isn't transformative soon?

Funny to finally hear a voice in real life which so far I’ve only heard in my head 😅

"Megan’s interest in private equity came from her experience as editor-in-chief of Deadspin, … taken over by a private equity firm … which began to immediately micromanage Deadspin’s content." An owner dared to disagree with an editor?! theverge.com/decoder-podcas…

“Privacy was frowned upon, it was for adulterers and murderers. … Even the attempt to acquire privacy was seen as suspicious … you could be plotting as well as fornicating, and both these things were frowned upon." historyextra.com/period/stuart/…

“local politicians exert excessive efforts during experiments that are not replicable during policies’ national rollout” journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…

“56% of pilots reported a history of health-care avoidance due to fear of losing their flying status.” theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

"individuals are willing to forgo 25% of their compensation for a job that is otherwise identical but offers hybrid or fully remote work instead of being in person. … Companies offer similar wages for remote & in-person work at the same position & level" aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

"2023 was likely the first year in human history when our fertility rate fell below the replacement rate. The world population will start falling c. 2055."

We lean towards the “compute relative to frontier model size approach”. Accordingly, compute and cognitive labor look like strong enough complements that recursive-self improvement will have pretty muted effects. (5/6)

"Bring back elite hypocrisy: private deviance, public piety." But as we've educated the masses, they now have as many reasons for skepticism as elites once did.

If futarchy allows far more competent governance, some places could use it to become far more adaptive. But at least for a while, other places might use it to become far less adaptive. It all depends on what outcome measures they use. overcomingbias.com/p/dangers-of-c…

This movie VASTLY overestimates social harms from easily-made fake videos.