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🚨 Upcoming: "Robust Causal Inference using Double/Debiased Machine Learning: A Guide for Empirical Research" 👤Achim Ahrens (Immigration Policy Lab ETH Zurich) 🗓️ Wed, Sep 18, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regist… 🔗…alsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/

Origins of inequality, Eurasia: First farmers tend small plots, labor is limiting factor of production, egalitarian. But <4000 BCE , plowing w/oxen makes land limiting f.o.p., wealth decoupled from labor, tied to land, inequality surges santafe.edu/news-center/ne…

Ok. That’s it. This is the funniest interaction on this website I’ve ever seen. Nothing can beat this, absolutely nothing.

Did you join our recent "Rethinking Regional Regeneration" event? ⚡️ Our Adrian Pabst, Arnab Bhattacharjee FRSA & Eliza da Silva Gomes presented findings & recommendations from our new regional dashboard 📊 Nuffield Foundation ICYMI, you can watch the full #event here📺👇 hubs.la/Q02QzQh50

Labour have dropped the language of Levelling Up but a sustained regeneration of our cities & regions has never been more urgent Will Hutton on National Institute of Economic and Social Research 's latest findings based on the new dashboard & index Nuffield Foundation Jagjit S. Chadha Arnab Bhattacharjee FRSA theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Austerity is about levels of public provision, not changes. We have acute austerity today. Labour's task now is to start ending it, which means the share of public spending in GDP rising significantly over time. mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/octobe… Constant real spending is not nearly enough.

So here is my attempt to make sense of the 'in financial mathematics, we use negative probabilities' claim... Ben Golub Joseph Noel Walker Nassim Nicholas Taleb @azad_champion Oliver Xie 1/7

NEW: Public sector pay has declined relative to the wider pay distribution, especially for higher earners. Jonathan Cribb @awmckendrick Magdalena Domínguez’s Green Budget chapter examines the pressures on public sector pay and the implications for recruitment & retention: [THREAD: 1/11]

It's been too long since I've made a substantive tweet, so here goes. At the following Dropbox link you can access the slides and Stata files for my recent talk at the Stata UK meeting: dropbox.com/scl/fo/50imn36… It's taken me awhile to see connections among various estimators.

I think the most commonly used treatment effect estimators when treatment, D, is unconfounded conditional on X, are the following: 1. Regression adjustment. 2. Inverse probability (propensity score) weighting. 3. Augmented IPW. 4. IPWRA 5. Covariate matching. 6. PS matching.

You can do almost all of this, with the PS estimated by MLE, using teffects in Stata. Unfortunately, while IPW uses normalized weights, AIPW does not. And, for some reason, ATET (ATT) is not an option with AIPW. You won't get moderating effects using teffects, though.

More on ‘fiscal rules’ - this from the EU & NOT the U.K. perspective. I don’t agree with some of this blog’s conclusions: I believe that in the UK context, our fiscal rules do constrain investment.But the idea of a “public investment floor” as a % of govt spending is interesting

Achilles at Troy, Achilles in Vietnam logarithmichistory.wordpress.com/2023/09/30/pts…

Yevgeniy Feyman 🟣 2SLS can be viewed as a linear control function approach (controlling for the first stage error = regressing on the first stage fitted values, by FWL). But nonlinear CFs generally involve some extrapolation away from 2SLS/LATE, as shown here arxiv.org/abs/1706.05982

When Double Descent & Benign Overfitting became a thing, I was a masters student in statistics — and so confused. I couldn't reconcile what l had literally just learned about bias-variance&co with modern ML Here's what I wish someone had told me then: arxiv.org/abs/2409.18842 1/n

Britain, they say, was running out of trees, so in the sixteenth century switched to using coal. But this story is not only wrong, it’s completely back-to-front. ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-inven…

GIVEAWAY TIME! In honour of #DoSomethingNiceDay we are giving away this brilliant bundle of goodies to one lucky follower! All you have to do is like this post, give it a share and we will randomly select from across our social channels! Good luck! #RalphSteadman #Giveaway

New evidence: the Post Office deliberately designed its compensation scheme to deter postmasters from applying, and minimise the compensation they could claim. Thread:

Thank you University of Glasgow for bestowing upon my mum the honorary degree of doctor of the University of Glasgow. This has brought her so much joy in the final beats of her life. Janey is so honoured, and I am so immensely proud of her. Congratulations Doctor Godley. Ashley Storrie