The stock of consumers savings is still way above pre-COVID and homeowners equity is at all time highs. With unemployment at all time lows and disinflationary impetus supporting real disposable incomes, market being offside of Fed on 23 cuts is setting up for a bloodbath. 2/2

No one should be enslaved to work to 64, nor anyone should be compelled to stop working at 64. A lot of ppl pursue passion careers and are fit and willing to work up to 80. Many have terribly dehumanizing jobs and want to stop at 55. Conflict comes from these arbitrary norms 2/2

$BBBY ✅

Interesting 1hr of $SYN price action following 🐧 Pentoshi tweet. Seems like the bots/algos were happy with a 15% scalp

A thread... I started in this business almost 25 (!) years ago. In that time, I have transitioned through the .com boom/bust, Sept 11, the RE boom/subsequent GFC, the Euro sovereign crisis, the '18 volmageddon, the '19 repo crisis, the Covid crisis & the '22 Fed hiking cycle. 1/

The story of inflation so far has been written with CB lies. It’s transitory, it’s supply-side driven, it’s China, it’s Putin, it’s not a wage-price spiral, it’s peaking, it’s soon about to converge down to target, it’s margin driven…can’t the layman see that he’s the sucker?

ICYMI, this post from last September is one of the best I've written, and is incredibly relevant to today's predicament. It also places much of the blame on central bank policy. 🧵 thelastbearstanding.substack.com/p/bonds-of-mas…

Look here’s the problem with the recession crew owning long-dated USTs and duration (these include several i know and respect). 🧵 You can’t have it both ways. US is running 6-8% deficits *right now* into a slowdown. This blows out to over 10% in recession even with… 1/17

One practice I highly recommend as an investor is deliberately and consistently spending some (not all) of your time working on contrarian ideas. Absent that, then by definition, you are spending all of your time working on conventional ideas which is not a recipe for success.

Fucking legend

The big question: Can "efficiency" fix the U.S. budget? thelastbearstanding.com/p/will-efficie…