Always bittersweet to be heading back to Bondi after a month with the kids in Malibu. Thanks to LAFD 🔥 and all firefighters for keeping their house safe. 🙏❤️

David puts in so cleanly in this short piece. The long tail of ai spend and potential for productivity gains is massively relevant to the whole economy. NVDA is a sideshow not the mainstage.

This is tennis in LA at the moment. The air quality and contamination is a real deal. Sadly impact of these fires are multiple and long lasting.

Notable from a clever friend, forward eps revisions have been more negative than usual for both 1Q25 and all of 2025, hence same day stock performance is weak. Interesting given expected strong 2025 growth were expected and are now coming off.

Today in venture. One of the SV powerhouse secondary players ‘sentiment has shifted’. And not in a good way re exits. I continue to tell our LPs large scale and later stage venture will underperform SPX net of fees over the next decade.

I am confused. Duke University Medical School has $600 million taken from their research budget due to DOGE etc. This is science for American health and in a red state. Help me understand.

Before you spend your pennies on US assets this morning this exceptional piece from Danny Dayan is worth a read. I fear that policy makers may believe they have more control over events than they have, sort of a Wuhan lab of economic policy if you will. Shout out to

Am I the only one getting a powerful emotional boost from ChatGPT telling me that 'your approach is perfect' and 'thats a great idea I will get right on it'?

One hedge fund has around 50bn notional and are market neutral. They are good at what they do and captured 20% on the short side, call it 10Bn. But they are long stocks so down 15% if they are doing great. Net +2.5Bn. Nobody made net 189Bn being short.

4 years old. Can rally from the baseline. Loves it. Calling around to Div 1 college coaches this week.

If you can put a data center in space you can put a data center anywhere, including places with land/power and no tarrifs and lower costs. Doesnt work for inference but does for LLM processes. Just a thought.

My friend Bob Elliott continues to provide some of the best content (for free!) in this place. He also has an excellent low fee listed ETF $HFGM which benefits from both his IP and IT (NFA).

Teach your kids art not coding

My kingdom for a great / the right data set is my summary of all Ai applications today

A day of meetings with Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo) (thanks for signing your book) Bob Elliott (you and I both know the article you must write) and EconstratPB (financial therapist) A lifetime of learning and some good laughs. Thanks for the insights guys.

If Ai pro-sumer companies start showing NDR below 50% in the back half of 2025 does anything change?

Best wishes to Lev Lev Borodovsky for a full recovery. The guy is a legend.

tier 1 VC firms doing retail style SPVs on +100bn private companies. Mark my bags baby

My friend Bob Elliott rightly pointing out that first we spend what we make then we go 10x levered for Great Jeans. Credit demand drives part II of the cycle? Think so.

Rotation can be painful