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My strong belief is that the real money to be made in the energy sector is in the “wait.” Compounding meaningful share buybacks over time vs. a quick hit. Quality, long-life oilsand assets with significant free cashflow are unique in the sector. Patience!

Hostile takeovers (12:31), oil macro, and why natural gas is in a structural bull market today on Market Call. As the studio is moving to Scarborough in August, this was likely my last time in person. End of an era after ~13 years: bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/ma…

Global oil inventories have built more than expected YTD. With demand risk due to tariffs + the accelerated return of (actual) OPEC+ barrels, US shale needs to act as the balancing mechanism = ~$60WTI or lower until demand reaccelerates and OPEC spare capacity normalizes.

Reasons to be cautious on oil in the short-term: 🛢️oil demand growth appears to be moderating (OilX) 🛢️global oil inventories have risen sharply YTD (178MM bbls; ~50/50 onshore/offshore) 🛢️Kazakhstan oil production is increasing = no sign of compliance improvement =

The new Minister of Energy & Natural Resources presented this morning to the Calgary energy community. His comments were encouraging, rationale, and pragmatic: "Canada will no longer be defined by delay, we will be defined by delivery" "every barrel of responsibly produced

We believe natural gas is in a structural bull market while the short-term outlook for oil is challenged (medium- term bullish thesis intact). Hear why in our Ninepoint Energy Strategies Weekly Update:

Why do we think OPEC+ spare capacity is less than consensus believes, and therefore the timeline to its normalization faster? Adjusting for a M-O-M dip in Brazilian exports, OPEC+ net exports are only down ~1.2MM Bbl/d vs. 2023, the highest recent May level. "We remain

We think the OPEC+ "voluntary cut" will be effectively fully unwound by year end. Short-term negative given large builds post-Summer, but long term positive as OPEC spare capacity will be fully normalized by ~ end of 2026. With the twilight of US shale...what then?

Global oil inventories have risen more than normal YTD (185MM Bbls vs. 40MM Bbls '17-'19 avg.) while US has followed seasonal norms. With the return of OPEC+ barrels, if US shale does not fall we could end 2026 at multi-year highs. This is why the market needs <$60WTI for now.

Met with the 2 largest US natural gas producers at the RBC Energy Conference in NY today whom account for ~ 12% of US supply. Both said they are at peak production for the year (declining into YE) and need a "structural price change" to start growing again ($4-$5 strip for next

What's my base case for oil? The voluntary deal will be fully unwound by the Fall adding ~1.1MM Bbl/d of actual barrels. This combined with Brazil and Guyana = ~1.5MM Bbl/d of YOY supply growth by Q4. To avoid massive 2026 builds, US shale MUST fall. This will not happen >$60WTI.

With an estimated incremental ~1.5MM Bbl/d of new supply hitting the market by Q4/25 and demand growth weakening, short-cycle (ie. US shale) production will need to fall to prevent meaningful inventory builds. This trend is beginning, but remains highly price dependent.

What did we learn from 2 days of meetings with the largest oil and natural gas producers in North America, and what are our current views on oil and natural gas? We discuss in this week's Ninepoint Energy Strategies Weekly Update.

Global oil inventories have 🔼 by 216MM Bbls YTD, more than the 5 year average 🔼 of 83MM Bbls. While levels should stay roughly 🟰 for the next 3 months due to seasonal demand strength, without a geopolitically induced outage Q4 builds are expected to be sizable.

The twilight of US shale is here. *US PROJECTS CRUDE OUTPUT TO FALL IN 2026, FIRST DROP SINCE 2021

Good meeting with a Permian producer yesterday. Believes little/no growth at current WTI level, but importantly also no declines until <$60WTI. Past 3 years = 2.5% annual loss in productivity per foot. Peak (plateau) US production until material rally in WTI. Super bullish

Inventory trends ex-China remain bullish, as do refining margins and time spreads. Excluding geopolitical "what ifs", oil macro comes down to magnitude of OPEC/Brazil/Guyana ⬆️production by Q4/25 vs. need to offset said ramp via price to prevent modelled Q4+2026 inventory builds.

An especially well deserved shoutout to Helima, the "Queen of geopolitical risk analysis" who has been warning the energy market for months about last night's increasing likelihood.

This morning I wrote to CDN oil producers encouraging them to use today’s spike to protect their Q4 and 1H/26 free cashflow (and buybacks) with hedges. Happily National Bank hedging desk reports an extremely active day! As of now, large inventory builds post-Summer still likely.