Large-scale proof of the super power of forecasting crowds, in one short video.

Par rapport aux 143 sondages "rolling" publiés entre le 1er février et le 22 avril concernant un duel Macron-Le Pen, la prévision collective du panel Hypermind - Le Point était plus proche du résultat final dans 128 cas, soit 90 % des fois. lepoint.fr/presidentielle…

How the collective intelligence of Hypermind's prediction markets outsmarted (again) the opinions polls in the French presidential election. hypermind.com/en/accuracy-pr…

Our probability map for the US election is updated daily with forecasts from of our elite prediction market (not a crypto bro hangout) as well as our new AI Forecasting Machine: tfm.hypermind.com/ai/elections20… We're making elections forecasting great again!

Polymarket @polymarket is clearly delusional. Trump bias syndrome anyone?

I wish X would offer an "unserious" or "weird" feedback button in addition to "like".

Oh, the irony!

Tired playbook?

The 2nd assassination attempt on #Trump has had no impact on his chances to win the election as estimated by our prediction market. This is in stark contrast to the uplift he got from the first attempt. #newnormal ?

Voting for president in NY state isn’t super impactful, but it feels good anyway.

In today's Wapo, David Ignatius mentions an intelligence estimate that looks very much like an OVERestimate compared to the prediction market's at the time. Just one data point, of course, but it's so rare to be able to compare these things...

There's plenty of dumb money out there.

When we forecast, we win!

Herding behavior or crowd wisdom? There is cognitive diversity in the sense that all these platforms operate quite differently (geography, demographics, rewards, etc.). Yet, they may not think really independently of each other (except 538).

It looks like there is consensus on Harris trending back up in the final stretch. Hypermind is still the most optimistic for her vs @polymarket the most pessimistic.

The October Trump bubble seems blown.

I have a feeling this will not even be close.

Alea jacta est !

Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: glimt.nu/glimt/en/welco… Kiko Llaneras Nuño Sempere

Un projet des gvrnmts suédois & ukrainien, sur une plateforme de sondages prédictifs Hypermind. Ouverte au monde entier, en 🇫🇷🇬🇧🇸🇪 L'intelligence collective comme arme de guerre contre le mal : glimt.nu/glimt/fr/welco… Etienne Gernelle Mathieu Laine Sébastien Le Fol Guillaume Erner