The #COVID19 outbreak at Roberta Place #LTC home could be the canary in the coal mine for #Ontario's 3rd wave. To date, 63/128 infected residents have died—this 49% case fatality rate (CFR) is much higher than Ontario's 2nd wave LTC resident CFR of 17.4%: covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/c…

New report: UK variant 1.65 times more deadly after 20 days in over 92,000 cases (95% confidence interval is 1.21-2.25). 1/ assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

% of Canadian population living in a #Covidzero health region (defined as <1 case per 100k per day) over time [template]

"We know that good comes from doing the right things for the right amount of time.” Outstanding, fact-based yet optimistic article with lots of relevance for Canada in our fight against COVID Variants. David Fisman Irfan Dhalla Andrew Morris Ashleigh Tuite nytimes.com/2021/02/01/wor…

An overwhelming 86% of Canadians support recent travel restrictions. Right from the beginning, Cdn citizens have supported governments doing the right thing. Time to do the right thing again & eliminate Variants already in-country.

I‘m struck that it still hasn’t sunk in how much #b117 may change the course of this pandemic. The initial shock about it being more transmissible seems to have worn off. But we are barely beginning to see its real-world impact. A story: sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/d… And a thread

Great Work by Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz illustrating the impact of a #COVIDzero approach compared to the current Yo-Yo that would just be disrupted by new variant! 🌻Ms. Heref Oryou Yaneer Bar-Yam #COVIDisAirborne Derrick VanGennep EndCoronaVirus.org Jonathan's translucent form Robert Greenhill 🇨🇦 Gary C. 🟦 Barry Hunt

ek #CanadianShield by COVID Strategic Choices Group Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz 🌻Ms. Heref Oryou Yaneer Bar-Yam #COVIDisAirborne Derrick VanGennep EndCoronaVirus.org Jonathan's translucent form Robert Greenhill 🇨🇦 Gary C. 🟦 Barry Hunt Studies are showing that both are possible: "Old" variant infection giving (or not) immunity to a new variant. But, 👉An uncontrolled pandemic 👉Lead to more variants generated and 👉Higher risk of a lasting endemic situation So, one thing is sure: this in an uncertain matter.

There are more people in Ontario’s ICUs with Covid today than there were at any point during wave 1. And the number has actually increased over the last couple of days (see below). Relax now, with less than 1% of the population vaccinated, and wave 3 will be brutal.

Some very simple models of covid case trajectories in Toronto based on decomposition of old variants and novel variants (b117 right now).

Some excellent advice to government here from Ontario Medical Association oma.org/newsroom/news-…

B117 grows exponentially in AB, doubling every 7 days. At this rate it'll become dominant on Mar05 and AB will have: Mar 15, 500 daily new cases Mar 24, 1000 daily new cases Mar 31, 2000 daily new cases Yes, the government and AH can avoid it. By aiming for #COVIDzero ASAP

Thanks Caroline Colijn on how we should use our tools to improve longer term control of COVID: rapid tests, controlling importation, and #CanadianShield #CanadianShield by COVID Strategic Choices Group

How well do #COVID19 vaccines stack up against the virus, including variants of concern? Below is a decent graphic, with all the usual caveats that the data isn't perfect, it's just the best we've got for now. bit.ly/3d5Q4lH By Dr. Brian Goldman with Zain Chagla

Twitterati, This is great information, based on Dynacare data. Does anyone know: 1. If all Ontario positive samples are screened for Variants? How is it being done? 2. Why aren't SGTF cases being published daily as "Potential Variants"? Kevin Brown Jason Kindrachuk, PhD

Depending on how you look at it, New Brunswick has successfully beaten back 5 or 6 waves of Covid-19. Each time they get back to zero. If Ontario had been as successful as New Brunswick, we’d have had about 430 deaths. Instead, we’ve had more than 6500.

👉Growing movement led by professionals pushes for COVID-zero strategy! Great article & research on #CovidZero by André Noël via Ricochet Media Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Robert Greenhill 🇨🇦 Yaneer Bar-Yam #CanadianShield by COVID Strategic Choices Group Dr. Lisa Iannattone Nancy Delagrave @DeNovo_Fatima ricochet.media/en/3489/growin…

Outstanding, timely article by Dr. Dick Zoutman, infectious diseases specialist & former Chair of Ontario SARS Scientific Advisory Committee. Andrew Morris Ashleigh Tuite Irfan Dhalla André Picard ottawacitizen.com/opinion/zoutma…

The next best time to implement #COVIDzero policy in Alberta and Canada is today.