#Bitcoin and #Altcoins have been pumping these past months. The higher we rise, the more people get afraid they might miss the exit. Nobody can predict when the bear market starts, but we will analyze some metrics that might help you identify the turning point. A 🧵

2/x So, where do we stand in the cycle? The following chart is good in one sense: it confirms that BTC rallies first, then Alts break their oldATH (Here: OTHERS = Crypto market cap excluding top 10). The misleading part is: We are not that close to the end of the cycle.

3/x The following BTC chart schows that we are barely even getting started in the crypto bull run. SMA50/100 crossings usually determine Buy and HODL signals (HODL = bull run starts), whereas...

4/x the RSI(100, daily) is accurate to determine the cycle peaks. However, we also see that this metric is declining over time and the last sell signal came a bit too early. Let's take a look at some more metrics:

5/x On the following chart, you see 3 metrics on the monthly chart. a) 12 month SMA with color coded candles b) Log. MACD (middle) c) monthly RSI Let's take a look at all these metrics in detail

6/x 12 Month SMA - you can see all red candles are monthly candles closing below the SMA and green closing above. This indicator gives you a good feeling of the market condition you are in. The bad thing: It lags a couple of months. Therefore we will look at the others

7/x Log MACD This one is a bit earlier but can have more crossovers in sideways periods and may be false positive and negative. Lags less than 12 month SMA.

9/x Taken all this together we can state the following: a) we are still not to far in the bull market process. ETFs and mass adoption effects may unfold later this year and next year. b) When anticipating the bear market, it helps to look at the money flow cycle

1/x Before we start, the disclaimer: 1. Most people look for crappy projects that are more likely to fail than to do > 100x. 2. Often it is safer to invest in proper projects with less potential ROI 3. Nano Cap cryptos come and go, and riding the wave is difficult

2/x Market cap matters: The less, the more volatile in both directions The figure shows the MCAP of some famous >100x coins from the past. As you can see, most have a MCAP of <300m when they make their explosive moves.

4/x The Chart Preferentially you have a bottom / accumulation area (like in LINK) with clear support followed by a breakout. Falling wedges on long time frames also tend to serve as starting points for >100x moves. A horizontal accumulation phase is our preferred pattern!

#Bitcoin knows a few tricks, and it does them well. This Power of Three setup has a target of $82,000. 📈👀

The chart says, the bull market is not over. $BTC

#Bitcoin bull market stays on track

WHO THE F IS SELLING #BITCOIN

#BTC

#Bitcoin network activity continues to decline. More importantly, $BTC whales seem to be taking a breather, with the number of large transactions also decreasing, as shown by data from Santiment!

$BTC 1hr back above the line $DXY heading lower

$BTC some bullish hopium

Roaring Kitty returns as this alt setup reappears. There are no coincidences.