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Predocs! Philipp Schnabl Philipp Schnabl and I are once again hiring a full-time RA. Come work with us on banking and macro finance. We'll review applications on a rolling basis. Econ RA Listings #EconTwitter

Even worse: India’s per capita income is roughly ~$2,500, and the country is also below replacement fertility As a consequence of degrowther mentality and Indira Gandhi initiated sterilizations and family planning — India already is facing a demographic crisis

I’ve been talking a lot today with Arpit Gupta about fertility in India, its recent evolution, and the serious problems with its demographic data. Let me plot the historical evolution of India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) based on the 2024 UN World Population Prospects and its

The steady background risk of political assassination is pretty concerning for the survival of democracy

Pearl River Delta has overtaken Tokyo to become humanity’s greatest urban agglomeration

SF should make this guy head of affordable housing development

There are many abundance verticals - but an underdiscussed one is defense abundance. Drones, missiles, ships, missile defense — we have seen plenty of conflicts which tell us that America needs to expand its production capacity immensely on all these fronts.

Big challenge for social security/pension reform is longevity is rising in a very class stratified way. Ideally you allow retirement at early ages for blue collar workers with physical injuries, but white collar workers should work longer, as they enjoy more healthy old years

A new Dongguan for the Bay Area

Are there any aircraft carriers yet which only hold drones?

This helps to explain why Google has a valuation ratio lower than Dollar General. It’s leading the AI race at the same time as being the company most exposed to disruption risk in legacy search.

Drones are a game changer for law enforcement. They replace high-speed chases (safer for everyone & more effective). By providing eyes where police need them, when they need them, they increase the swiftness & certainty of consequences for committing crime. This will have a

New WP: "The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United State", with Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz 1/n

AI + social media = polarization machine 🧠📱 Recommender systems trap users in echo chambers and ad-based platforms profit from partisan division.

Is irrational behavior around risk really just about complexity? A recent study argued this, but it does not replicate — in addition, people making bad decisions when they are confused is not a meaningful finding. Read it all below!

One annoying post pandemic trend is people view red lights as helpful but not binding suggestions

Just posted a paper comparing the predictive performance of three models (538, Silver Bulletin, Economist) with that of Polymarket in the 2024 US elections, based on 41 competitive races: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… 1/n

Betting markets win (amid salience) “We find that all models failed to beat the market in the headline contract but some did so convincingly in contracts referencing less visible race.”

Median voter theorem in shambles

Prediction: there is going to be a populist political upheaval from AI, resulting from the loss of jobs and status by white collar workers who see their work automated and displaced