How long can residential construction employment survive with housing starts doing this?

OUT NOW - FED DAY SPECIAL Max Wiethe & I break down today's Fed meeting and discuss when the Fed will finally have enough data to cut rates. Youtube: bit.ly/4jQi9Mx Apple: bit.ly/4jYSMse Spotify: bit.ly/45vXVEq

Physical copy of my first article in the Bloomberg Markets Magazine! 🥰 Link to article below 👇

Good afternoon. My next guest on the Prometheus Podcast is Meb Faber. What are your questions for him?

Slowing US Economy? This year, guided by our systematic process at Prometheus, I have largely believed that the economic outlook is positive. However, that same process pointing to some indications of slowing. We’re seeing weakness in the following: 1. Claims 2. Retail

Serious question— how is this “Fourth Turning” related? I was under the impression that it’s about domestic social & economic stress

Don’t believe the bonds!

Liberation Day too! *ducks*

Good morning. I continue to see *early* signs that the economy has started to feel broad based weakness. The weakness hasn’t been large enough to move our various programs yet, but it brings down confidence in risk-on trades. A bit more of this and I could stop hating on bonds

@aahan_prometheus Bob Elliott The broad-based slowdown in growth visualized.

Good morning. Looking across stocks, bonds, and commodities from a US perspective there remains limited potential for a big macro trade. But the recent weakness in labor data + pervasive weakness in growth data is creating potentiating the next trades (bonds in particular).

Prometheus Multi-Strat loves stocks here

You’re welcome fellow humans.

One of the best interviews I’ve heard in a minute. Kudos Jack Farley The macro relevance traditionally non-cyclical sectors like healthcare has grown so much over the last decade. It makes the economy less cyclical. Important for forecasting youtu.be/pQTXMntf-QE?si…

= do less trend, do more mean reversion

Thank you, Aahan Doctors and investors have told me this is one of their favorite episodes Healthcare employs over 20x as many people as house construction… its extremely important to the macro economy

Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program took on 100% net exposure to beta yesterday. 1 day forward S&P returns have been pretty strong when this happens.

Always a pleasure chatting with Meb Faber. Amongst many fun topics, he got me to reveal the last private investment I ever made....before I fully converted to index investing for life :)