Officially got the Oversold print on the short-term holder MVRV bollinger bands. Last three instances of this: 1. Yen Carry Unwind - $49k 2. Tariff Tantrum - $74k 3. Today - $108k $BTC

STH-SOPR trying to flip green. $BTC

The average $BTC ETF buyer is +40%

Since the Fed’s balance sheet began its contraction, $BTC is up +182%, rising from $39k to $109k over the past three years. During the same period, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by 25%. It will be interesting to watch how BTC, the Great Absorber of Liquidity, responds

Does $MSTR want to revisit its Cool band at $295?

The resiliency of the bull. $BTC

$BTC has spent most of the last year in the green AVIV band, between ‘price mean’ and +1sd. From my view, a bullish impulse into the blue zone between $126k to $142k is well within the cards.

Surprising stat from recent _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ letter: “Over 58% of all invested wealth has a cost basis above $95k.” The majority of market participants are climatized to current $BTC price levels. For most of the market, six-figure bitcoin is the norm.

Bitcoin HODLers Dashboard | $BTC $110k MVRV-Z: Neutral STH-SOPR: Neutral STH-MVRV: Neutral Futures Funding Rates: Cool

STH-SOPR is back above 1.0 and into the green for the first time in 20 days. We’ll see if the recent price action delivered enough pain to the short-term holder cohort, or if the market wants to inflict more pain on them before making its next move higher. $BTC

At $110k, and just 11% off all-time highs, the $BTC Mayer Multiple has historically been higher than today’s value 57% of the time.

Comparing bitcoin’s Sortino Ratio to other major assets (wow). The Sortino Ratio is like the Sharpe Ratio because it measures returns compared to risk. But unlike Sharpe, it only looks at DOWNSIDE risk (losses) and ignores upside swings, since gains are assumed to be

I am but a humble analyst, preparing for multiple outcomes with a bias for upside vol. $BTC

Bitcoin’s Choppiness Index has started to refuel. I think of this as stored potential energy — the more Chopsolidation, the more fuel builds up in the tank for the market’s next move. $BTC

$BTC basing around its key price zone: the short-term holder cost basis. Coming down, testing this area, and then bouncing back up would suggest the secular bull market remains intact.

MACD appears to be bottoming out, suggesting that downward momentum is weakening. $BTC

The short-term holder supply in profit/loss ratio has reset to its ‘Break-Even’ level. My view: a healthy sentiment reset, with bulls stepping in to defend the short-term cost basis (for now). $BTC

Operation Vaulted Price (now $143K) continues without disruption. $BTC

After briefly falling out, bitcoin is back in the Pi Cycle Top channel. Is this the start of a new “cycle”? My two cents: bitcoin trades in mini fear/greed cycles within broader, macro liquidity cycles. There’s little signal left in halving-based cycle analysis, imo. $BTC

MSTR price zones: The data supports the sentiment. Long-term believers in Saylor and the strategy are probably seeing relative value here.