Illegal immigrants constitute ~ 4.4% of the overall American workforce according to a GS analysis, but make up 13% of construction workers, 16% of animal slaughtering and processing workers, and 17% of farm workers. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Between 1992 and 2025, the US economy significantly decarbonized; the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to GDP fell from ~ .44 to ~.19, largely being driven by the replacement of coal by natural gas. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Underlying inflation is running ~ 1–1.5pp above its pre-pandemic rate. Matthew C. Klein notes, “With underlying inflation holding steady and the potential for tariffs to push things further, price risks seem to be skewed towards the upside." edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

The US prime-age employment-to-population ratio and the job-finding rate for those in the labor force are ~at the European mean. But the US participation rate has fallen below 90%, on par with Italy at the bottom of the pack, driven by men ages 25–34. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Paul Kedrosky argues the American economy is undergoing a fundamental shift from > 3% mean annual GDP growth to "life under two," or below 2% annually. If maintained, this shift from "abundance" to "scarcity" will change American life. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

The CBO's dynamic analysis of the reconciliation bill forecasts an increase in the deficit of $2.8T over 2025–2034; increased borrowing raises interest rates on the 10-year by a mean of 14bps and real GDP increases by .5% over that period. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

The dollar is off >10% against the euro, pound, and Swiss franc since January. Paul Tudor Jones argues American fiscal expansion will lead to another 10% $ decline over the next 12 months. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Robin Brooks argues the “unprecedented” immigration wave under Biden “collided with a segmented labor market that was leaving more and more people on the sidelines.” He implies the marginal native male worker is worse off due to increased competition. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

After years of near-zero yields, 10-year Bund yields are trading around 2.5% down from March's 2.9%. The Bund market is "normalizing" with bond yields moving above interest rate swaps of the same duration. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

American public firms have reduced their white-collar workforce by 3.5% over the past three years; managers and executives were more impacted, falling 6.1% and 4.6%, respectively, over the period. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Foreign holdings of Treasuries at $9.01T held close to a record high in April, down just $36B from March. Private selling accounted for more than 100% of the decline; official entities were net buyers. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

China produces 70–80% of commercial drones and accounted for 79% of approved drone patents globally in 2024. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Corporate bond trading has changed from “a relationship-based business to a more transaction-based [one],” reducing search costs in “normal times,” while replacing the broker dealers who held inventories needed to provide liquidity in times of stress. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Citing a number of examples from medicine and meteorology, Crémieux argues that “hard-to-explain trend[s]” are often artifacts of shifts in measurement methodology resulting from institutional changes and, in some cases, economic incentives. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Middle-income jobs in the US’s leading sectors are migrating out of high-cost cities. Headcount at securities dealers in New York fell 21% btw 2008 and 2024, film production fell 16% in LA, and tech manufacturing fell 32% in Silicon Valley. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Since February 2020 real Federal spending has risen 25%. Interest payments account for ⅓ of the increase; that spending along with increases in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits account for 77% of the increase. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

An ECB analysis finds Euro Area affiliates of US multinationals account for >5% of EA value added and are responsible for ~ 30% of the EA 2024 goods surplus vis-a-vis the US. Overall, the EA-US current account was ~ at par in 2024. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

The American manufacturing trade deficit in 2024 was $1.2T. Robert Lawrence estimates that closing it would increase the share of manufacturing employment from 7.9% to 9.7% and increase of 1.7pp. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Home prices in Palm Beach have doubled since 2020 reaching a total market value of ~ $40B according to data from Palm Beach County. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

In the US recent college graduates have a higher unemployment rate than the overall average; the EU, UK, Canada and Japan are on a similar path. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…