As Matt writes, the numbers might be revised later but if not, then there’s been a step-change drop in wage growth this year. 👇

In contrast to the new wage data I highlighted earlier today, this makes the case that there might be a new nominal spending impulse in the pipeline that could justify even higher interest rates:

ft.com/content/1d287e…

Early to say with much confidence yet, but we may be finally starting to see some genuine nominal wage deceleration

Our detailled workimg paper on using the financial system to enforce export controls with Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦 Benjamin Hilgenstock
and Anna Vlasyuk has just been published Bruegel. Have a look
bruegel.org/working-paper/…

Some things never change I guess

Really interesting argument from Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦 on the material incentives for continued Russian aggression:

ft.com/content/3fd6b6…

(presumably those incentives could change if Russia's losses ramped up significantly)

Read this thread:

Very early to have much confidence in this, but still: can't stop won't stop!

I enjoyed this argument from Martin Sandbu that sometimes the best thing for a business to do is to do business badly:

ft.com/content/3379e3…

In which I argue that the Fed has been quietly following the 2018 advice of Lawrence H. Summers to replace the inflation-targeting framework with a 5-6% NGDP target, so that interest rates are around 5% in normal times

x.com/M_C_Klein/stat…

In which I argue that the Fed has been quietly following the 2018 advice of Lawrence H. Summers to replace the inflation-targeting framework with a 5-6% NGDP target, so that interest rates are around 5% in normal times

x.com/M_C_Klein/stat…

New at THE OVERSHOOT:

The 6% Solution?

theovershoot.co/p/the-6-soluti…

<-- U.S. spending and incomes continue to grow a bit faster than before the pandemic. And that's okay.

I am loving the Dr Anton Howes series on salt:

ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-inven…

👇

'We have the luxury of strong growth and a strong labor market' -- Jerome Powell

“[Immigration] should be neither inflationary nor disinflationary over a longer period”

--Jerome Powell

Powell gave the Indeed Wage data a shout-out. Mentioned the JOLTs data from this morning. Did not hear anything about ECI yet. Interesting. There is a reason why stocks and bonds are rallying at the moment.

“We don’t target wage growth or the labor market” -- Powell

And yet it comes up a lot...