CRUDE TANKER SUPPLY (updated) ED'S DEEP DIVE 🧵 VLCC = Very Large Crude Carrier 200,000+ dwt Suezmax 120,000-199,999 dwt Aframax 78,000-119,999 dwt Panamax 60,000-77,999 dwt $DHT $FRO $ECO $INSW $NAT $SFL $TNK $TNP $NMM $EURN

Sea Leopard 270 meg/china 4-6 Oct w59 Unipec 🤩

WHISPERS LR2 STI LILY 109k/2019 New Times Sold for $73/74m $STNG

+5.7% higher than 2024.

In 2021-22-23-24 Chinese crude oil import quotas were steady, at 243mt. This +5.7% increase is material. (S&P)

“China is on track to import record volumes of iron ore in October... 120m mt” 🫡

Clarkson’s: “LR2 rates saw a jump yesterday, with eco earnings standing at $31,500/day, up 9.8% d/d. The uptick is driven by strong activity in the Middle East Gulf over the past week, reducing the available tonnage and causing the MEG-Japan route to jump 20.4% to $27,700/day.”

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Poten: “[Saudi] cuts are scheduled to be reversed starting in December 2024. (...) Additional output will probably put downward pressure on prices, a scenario that is unattractive to most OPEC+ members and Russia in particular, who desperately needs the money for their war

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$STNG bombshell $DHT

Cape 5 T/C Index $15,417/day +$606/day

The number of tanker S&P transactions (YTD) is at 5y lows: -38% year over year. via BRS.

Have a great weekend everyone! Get some rest. 💤

Poten: “In 1970, [Norwegian and UK] combined production was 4,000 b/d. By 1976, it was 537,000 b/d. Production surpassed 2.0 Mb/d in 1979, 3.0 Mb/d in 1983 and 4.0 Mb/d in 1991. North Sea crude oil output peaked in 2000 at close to 6.5 Mb/d.”

It’s snowing in the Alps! ❄️ Ski season is here! ⛷️ Reminder that many of you shared some AMAZING European ski resort ideas below. (I even geeked out and made a spreadsheet...)

“Non-OECD Asia is likely to remain the principal driver of oil demand growth in 2024 amid strong expansion from 🇮🇩 Indonesia (2024f: +4%), 🇹🇭 Thailand (+2%) and 🇻🇳 Vietnam (+7%)” — Clarkson’s