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Hiring plans by US firms have been all over the map in the last 6 months - upbeat a few months after the election, downbeat since February - but actual behavior has barely budged this whole time

this chart is a nice encapsulation of the economic trajectory over the past 2 weeks... Expectations less awful, but present reality getting slightly worse.

An increase in layoffs is apparent across a range of data sources, though they disagree about the size of the increase. JOLTS and initial claims are on the small side; CPS (layoffs into non-employment) is higher; I don't take the magnitude of job cut announcements seriously.

This is great youtu.be/tVJcdnNimP0?si… via YouTube

Domestic resources are finite. If you reshore some goods and services, you’ll produce less of other goods and services

I’ve managed to turn my 7 year old onto the Marx Brothers youtu.be/VKTT-sy0aLg?si… via YouTube

A great marriage moment as I mansplain to my wife that it’s “whooMp there it is”, not “whoop there it is”

Pass the Parcel has not gotten old yet

Good Matthew C. Klein point that I’d been trying to confirm as well over the past day or two — relative to the current *policy* baseline (not current *law*), BBB + tariffs should have a modest contractionary impact on the budget deficit:

Time to reboot Efraim Kishon’s board game from the 1960s! “Players roll the dice, advance their markers on the board and follow the instructions while collecting all the necessary documents [to retrieve the package from customs].” boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/3841…

Some folks are replying to this with “productivity can make up some/all of the difference” but the opposite is likely to be true, productivity will be lower

Apparently there is a gull species known as Bonaparte’s Gull

I think we can all agree that “Born to Run” is one of Billy Joel’s best songs

If you’ve heard Bruce Springsteen’s “Nebraska”, you’re probably wondering why a musician from this deep red state is such a stalwart liberal. And the explanation is Springsteen is from NE-2.

This is adorable.