Pleased to say latest biannual round of Ipsos UK data tracking voting intention / leader satisfaction ratings amongst ethnic minorities will be featured on Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge this evening. A significant shift in ratings for one leader in particular.

Will tweet more post 7.15pm.

Labour is the most trusted party in the Red Wall on EVERY issue prompted.

Who do Red Wall voters trust the most on...? (Lab | Con)

NHS (41% | 16%)
Housing (38% | 17%)
Immigration (32% | 19%)
Economy (35% | 22%)
Ukraine (28% | 25%)

redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wal…

Britain got bored of levelling up before it even began. A brutal chart from Archie Hall
economist.com/britain/2024/0…

UK goods trade is getting absolutely mullered. It's mad there's not more focus on what on earth is going on

Labour leads by 25% in the Red Wall.

Lowest Conservative % with Sunak as PM.

Red Wall VI (11-12 May):

Labour 47% (+3)
Conservative 22% (-2)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Lib Dem 7% (+1)
Green 5% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

Changes +/- 13-14 April

redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wal…

Quite an achievement to be less well known than a fictional MP...

📝Don't miss this BJPIR article...

'Gendering the floating voter: A mixed methods study of gender and undecided voters in Britain' by Rosalind Shorrocks & Anna Sanders

⬇️Find the article here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13…
The Political Studies Association

'When will the next MP defection be?' has replaced 'When will the PM call the election?' as the perennial focus of Westminster...

It's difficult to see either of these actually happening. There's little evidence of public demand for Cummings' techno populism, and Goodwin's offering seems well to the right of Reform.

📈The latest Sky News poll tracker puts Labour on a 20-point lead over the Conservatives📉

Lab 43.8 (40-48) 
Con 23.6 (18-27) 
Reform 11.4 (8-15) 
Lib Dems 10.3 (8-12) 
Green 5.9 (4-7) 
SNP 2.6 (2-3)

Read more here: news.sky.com/story/sky-news…

46% of Labour voters say Starmer right to invite Elphicke into the party, 26% say wrong.

That's still a significant number saying wrong, but based on the vote intention of this poll (Lab lead up 2) no sign it's hurt the party's vote share.

Can we have a pedantic argument over whether the BES started in 1963 with the first wave of the Butler/Stokes Political Change in Britain survey? 😀

🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for The Telegraph

📈18pt Labour lead

🌹Lab 43 (=)
🌳Con 25 (-2)
🔶LD 12 (+1)
➡️Reform 10 (+1)
🌍Green 4 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
⬜️Other 4 (=)

2,090 UK adults, 10-12 May

(chg 3-5 May)

Thrilled to share that I passed my viva (with minor corrections) yesterday. Thank you to my fantastic supervisors Jessica C. Smith, Will Jennings & Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte for all their support and to my brilliant examiners Elizabeth Evans and Jennifer Piscopo for their engagement with my work!

And this is what it looks like when a once respected academic becomes a racist idiot using dog whistle language. Anyone using public transport in London regularly knows this isn’t typical of the bus service - it’s apparently Ruislip lido on the first hot day