The ECI came in well above expectations. And also an increase in wage growth for my preferred metric, private workers ex incentive occupations seasonally adjusted (a mouthful, and unfortunately not published by BLS).

Up at a 4.2% annual rate in the first three months of the yr.

Excited to share what I've been up to this year!

On the cover of this week's The Economist is a 6-part special report on India’s economy by Tom Easton+me. It asks

- What it would take for India beat 6% growth?
- And is Modi up to the task?

🧵on the key arguments 1/

Every day the nimbys find new frontiers

Real GDP growth came in at 1.6% in Q1, softer than expected. But that appears to be driven by weakness in volatile components, especially net exports. Private domestic final purchases--'core GDP' made up of consumption & fixed investment--grew 3.1%, a very strong print.

Excited to watch the hedge funds figure out how to brand every analyst a “policymaker”

Good piece here on fixing the UK's incredibly wasteful VAT regime, which gives away huge amounts of money to the highest spenders in the name of progressivity.

economist.com/britain/2024/0…