“Like many fellow KGB veterans who lived through the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin retains a keen sense of the fragility of the Russian state. “ Andrei Soldatov & Irina Borogan once again offer insight into Putin’s Cold War era KGB political calculus driving his priorities

Exposing illegal/inhumane Russian chemical use w/o consequences only encourages Putin-enhances his brand. There must be a price ie additional, more lethal weapons & plausibly deniable support to Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries/infrastructure. bbc.com/news/world-eur…

Thanks to my friend Asha Rangappa for the opportunity to speak to her Yale Jackson School students on the A, B, C’s of espionage and the great visit to Yale tradition “Mory’s!”

…because the Houthis have such exceptional over the horizon intel capabilities? Addressing the symptoms, Iranian proxies, rather than the enabling source, Iran, will degrade but not mitigate the threat.

Nice to be back home in New York City for a speaking event (and great pizza!)

Saudi Arabia gets the US deal it wanted w/o having to normalize with Israel, an MbS win at little cost.

The US needed to proceed, bind KSA to the West. King Salman behind the 2003 Arab League 2-state offer so MbS avoids backlash.

Israel the loser here. theguardian.com/world/2024/may…

The scariest part is how the system for regulating CIA provides another Trump administration significant flexibility to indeed weaponize it against his enemies, as I recently wrote for CNN
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cnn.com/2024/01/24/opi…

The evident disparity in deterrent capabilities Israel displayed over Iran is a short term victory that can’t help but further IRGC pressure on Khamenei to approve nuclear weapons development as a counter.

With an ongoing Coalition review and strikes pressuring the US to withdraw, security issues packed the agenda for Sudani’s DC visit.

But Myles Caggins III and Carolyn Moorman argue there’s a need to think beyond security for more sustainable bilateral ties.

newlinesinstitute.org/state-resilien…

Salami is more politician than strategist - it’s armed forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri who warrants attention.

I suspect Bagheri, fmr C/IRGC intel, will press Khameini for nuclear weapons to secure the deterrence that lran’s retaliation likely failed to achieve.

As the photo shows DCIA Burns speaking to POTUS during the NSC meeting on “what now,” I expect he’s cautioning that Netanyahu now has his excuse to strike Iranian nuclear targets as he has long wanted and what his likely demands will be if we’re to talk him out of it.

The Shahed drones are relatively slow. It will take hours for them to reach Israel, but it is very much possible that the objective of that swarm is to oversaturate the Israeli air defense so that ballistic and cruise missiles might get through. This is the same tactics Russia is…

Iran’s least risky retaliation that still meets internal pressure employs IRGC directed missiles/drones fired from Syrian territory at remote Israeli military targets in the Golan and the Negev.

Moving military assets within Iran just as likely defensive for dispersion.

Sharing my thoughts with ⁦Julian E. Barnes⁩ on how the USIC is bracing for another Trump presidency and what we might expect him to do. nytimes.com/2024/04/12/us/…

The panel starts at 7:30PM EDT and the central question concerns the future of US relations with Russia. Please join us.

Fmr Trump DNI ⁦Senator Dan Coats⁩ re the GOP’s false $ choice writes “In blunt dollar terms, helping Ukraine…is, by far, the least expensive way to weaken Russia’s military and discourage Russian aggression, thereby protecting ourselves and our allies.” nytimes.com/2024/04/11/opi…

The GOP not using its power for good b/c of blind allegiance/fear of Trump when it can stop Putin in Ukraine & those conspiring with foreign entities to kill/spy in the US means no lawful right/protection/freedom is safe from one man’s ego & mercurial whims. Our choice November.

Iran trying to avoid the escalation trap Netanyahu wants to provide him a political life preserver. But Iran needs a big win, or at least the appearance of one, to avoid looking weak and inviting challenges at home or threats from abroad. Most retaliation options carry big risks.

⁦⁦Spotify⁩ now includes my book #TheRecruiter for Premium Plan customers at no additional cost. A great narrator makes it a good listen. open.spotify.com/show/0NrKL2Q4Y…

Abu Mariya’s feud with ISIS cadre dates long before it or HTS predecessor Al Nusra split from Al-Qa’ida. A former Iraqi policeman, well connected, he was a challenging target for the US, despite antagonizing peers. Clearly ISIS has a long memory and found a like minded insider.