Salami is more politician than strategist - it’s armed forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri who warrants attention.

I suspect Bagheri, fmr C/IRGC intel, will press Khameini for nuclear weapons to secure the deterrence that lran’s retaliation likely failed to achieve.

As the photo shows DCIA Burns speaking to POTUS during the NSC meeting on “what now,” I expect he’s cautioning that Netanyahu now has his excuse to strike Iranian nuclear targets as he has long wanted and what his likely demands will be if we’re to talk him out of it.

The Shahed drones are relatively slow. It will take hours for them to reach Israel, but it is very much possible that the objective of that swarm is to oversaturate the Israeli air defense so that ballistic and cruise missiles might get through. This is the same tactics Russia is…

Iran’s least risky retaliation that still meets internal pressure employs IRGC directed missiles/drones fired from Syrian territory at remote Israeli military targets in the Golan and the Negev.

Moving military assets within Iran just as likely defensive for dispersion.

Sharing my thoughts with ⁦Julian E. Barnes⁩ on how the USIC is bracing for another Trump presidency and what we might expect him to do. nytimes.com/2024/04/12/us/…

The panel starts at 7:30PM EDT and the central question concerns the future of US relations with Russia. Please join us.

Fmr Trump DNI ⁦Senator Dan Coats⁩ re the GOP’s false $ choice writes “In blunt dollar terms, helping Ukraine…is, by far, the least expensive way to weaken Russia’s military and discourage Russian aggression, thereby protecting ourselves and our allies.” nytimes.com/2024/04/11/opi…

The GOP not using its power for good b/c of blind allegiance/fear of Trump when it can stop Putin in Ukraine & those conspiring with foreign entities to kill/spy in the US means no lawful right/protection/freedom is safe from one man’s ego & mercurial whims. Our choice November.

Iran trying to avoid the escalation trap Netanyahu wants to provide him a political life preserver. But Iran needs a big win, or at least the appearance of one, to avoid looking weak and inviting challenges at home or threats from abroad. Most retaliation options carry big risks.

⁦⁦Spotify⁩ now includes my book #TheRecruiter for Premium Plan customers at no additional cost. A great narrator makes it a good listen. open.spotify.com/show/0NrKL2Q4Y…

Abu Mariya’s feud with ISIS cadre dates long before it or HTS predecessor Al Nusra split from Al-Qa’ida. A former Iraqi policeman, well connected, he was a challenging target for the US, despite antagonizing peers. Clearly ISIS has a long memory and found a like minded insider.

Dangerous/complicated inflection point. Iran must respond strongly or risks appearing weak. A huge intel failure/lack of preparedness. But against whom? Af/Pak based camps? Israel & US? Directly-by proxy? Could bring the escalation Netanyahu wants/needs at cost to US.

Is Netanyahu pushing Iran to escalate to help him at home/draw the US into direct conflict.

After Israel kills IRGC generals, Jaish al-Adl attacks IRGC bases. Mossad draws from Iran’s Sunni Baluch, Kurds and Arabs for ops in Iran. aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/4/…

Please join me Live via ZOOM for an @uarizonacast distinguished speaker panel April 11th at 7:00 PM EDT on the US, Europe and Russia w/Prof Paul D'Anieri, Prof Dmitriy Nurullayev & Sydney Kerr

Register here👇
azcast.arizona.edu/academics/gove…

The CIA tried to share counterterrorism information with Russia but got nothing in return, writes Douglas London, who explains where that leaves the battle against ISIS as the terror group is still hungry to strike. cnn.com/2024/04/02/opi…

A reassuring reflection that CIA is still working CT and a troubling one for Russians. Increasing security at the theater (which WAPO claims the CIA named as the target) would likely have dissuaded the attackers from following through. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

PUTIN & TERROR: Friend of Mriya Report, Douglas London Douglas London, served 34 years as a CIA operations officer, multiple times as a Chief of Station. He says despite ISIS's threat, Putin’s only concern is the politics of terrorism. cnn.com/2024/04/02/opi…

CIA veteran Douglas London finds our intelligence community's termination of the Havana Syndrome investigation inexplicable. Yet again, it was investigative journalists led by Christo Grozev who exposed Russia's GRU Unit 29155 operations & their use of the directed energy weapon.

Putin faces a more serious ISIS threat than the US but believes that’s a net gain for him. Do we still need to share CT leads? Yes, and I explain why. cnn.com/2024/04/02/opi…

Thanks to Laura Coates and CNN for the opportunity to offer my thoughts on the 60 Minutes Havana Syndrome report which should be a wake up call for the USIC and not reason to double down on a job done poorly. video.snapstream.net/Play/9hG71aFHc…