recessions don’t cause market declines—market declines cause recessions

the idea of alts being backed by long-end treasuries is why the US government actually cares about crypto—it gives them a new way to push debt globally.

imagine him as Fed Chair we want that

big beautiful bull

Q-CTA hasn’t even started bidding yet. Imagine when it does.

The Fed’s signaled many times they care more about PCE than CPI—it’s broader and tracks consumer behavior better. With BLS under scrutiny after the NFP mess, PCE might carry even more weight now. Next release: Aug 29, 8:30 ET.

having fun??

every bullish alt call needs one justification: who’s the marginal buyer? if your thesis doesn’t map how capital can actually reach it — through ETFs, indices, or broker rails — it’s not analysis, it’s wishful thinking in illiquid markets.

what a call

I don’t know anything about oil. The one lesson I learned from 2022 was whenever oil folks start talking about “paper vs physical markets” or “paper market getting it all wrong” that it’s time to run as far away from oil as I can and take comfort that the worst is basically over.