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Here is the crowding out we were discussing earlier this week. Percentage of debt relative to market cap the important factor. Debt allows a corporation to leverage capital investment. Low leverage restricts productivity

Pierre Rochard (2) Simple Rule For Relatively Efficient Markets: Don’t buy highly liquid assets for 2-5x their market prices, and REALLY don’t buy the equities of companies violating that rule, at in effect 4-25x the underlying NAV. No matter how a quant tries to justify it.

Kind reminder on equities Futures might help you with direction Don’t get caught up on magnitude No one with any market moving risk could even think about operating in futures space

Even though we don’t see eye to eye on how the supply of duration affects all risk assets, I really like this idea from George.

What has happened in the last hour at the US Open is a great teaching lesson about markets and risk management.

JJ Spaun Do you have his mental fortitude? Don’t ever give up!

My mind only works one way Identity theft company that guarantees they will protect your identity Or If they can’t they will return your premium Hmmmm You retain the worst part of the distribution and they have sold an option they can’t lose on Seems to me that

Clown show

GENIUS Act Really? Please reference SVB Who backstopped it?

SEP25 Option Implied Fed Probabilities including 50% weighting of October FOMC MODE No Moves MEAN 16.25bps of Cuts The distribution includes both 8% chance of a hike, plus 7% chance of 3 cuts or more

DEC25 Option Implied Fed Probabilities MODE No Moves MEAN 34bps of cuts Picture tells you all you need to know

DEC26 Option Implied Fed Probabilities MODE 4 Cuts MEAN 97bps of Cuts Pretty wide distribution with a meaningful probability that the plane crashes so hard we need sub 2% Funds going in to midterms..........

DEC27 Option Implied Fed Probabilities MODE 75bps of Cuts MEAN 82bps of Cuts Real probability that they run things really hot and inflation flourishes (you want to argue productivity, have at it) Even greater chance we are back to deflation or meaningfully negative growth

FOMC Market Implied SEP Summarized 2025 No Move 2026 100bps of Cuts 2027 75bps of Cuts

Fiscal dominance Public debt becomes so large that it dominates private debt and the effect that monetary policy usually has on it, and GDP as a result. Instead of higher rates moderating the demand for borrowing, higher rates become stimulative quasi fiscal policy absent some

Is it just me? We have creative writers running the show instead of numbers people One cute acronym after another and very little if any bottom line benefit

Update WH just submitted their SEP 2025 200bps of Cuts

900k plus followers Aspirational

This the big divergence Market says no move the most likely outcome More than 50% of The Committee believe 2 or more cuts

Powell sounds very much at ease They have nothing to defend - fiscal policy is so uncertain that The Fed doesn't even know what to have an opinion on. Tariff policy uncertain Economic agent reaction to the eventual policy is uncertain Timing is uncertain