Aaaaand another take that assumes European troops would enforce a ceasefire despite Russia only agreeing on condition of no Western troops in Ukraine. Basically, "we trick Russia into a ceasefire (they're not reading this, are they?) and sneak in our troops."

Shashank Joshi Samuel Charap Putin has not been sensitive to the West’s cost imposition strategy on Ukraine, so no prospect that it would work to upend a core element of his strategy here

Didn’t we already know this in Istanbul? Sam is right and am surprised that the media/Trump was even expecting something different. Russians — sadly — have been consistent in saying no to a ceasefire before progress on terms of peace.

A reminder that article 5-like guarantees were part of the 2022 Istanbul communique. ⁦Sergey Radchenko⁩ foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-…

I don't know why I bother writing earnest articles about people-centered peacemaking or the proper sequencing of negotiations processes and such

Security guarantees come in lots of shapes and sizes. But let’s be clear: there’s not going to be a US or European commitment to go to war with Russia if it reinvades Ukraine. I’m all for commitments to back a ceasefire. But this conversation is becoming divorced from reality.

Words to be written in stone

I would say that is the most important element of Ukraine's future security is a strong Ukrainian army. There can be other external commitments to Ukraine's security, but "Article 5-like" is not a likely one of them. See foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/pathwa…

other security guarantee models are discussed in this (still relevant) piece with Jeremy Shapiro stimson.org/2023/elements-…

Or more alive than ever?

This is one of the more sensible ideas floated in recent days… it’s definitely not “article 5 like” but it’s something. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

"If Russia is offering what it offered in 2022, it’s hard to see how we’ve moved," Samuel Charap told The New York Times. "It does not seem that there has been much of a shift in the Russian position." nytimes.com/2025/08/20/wor…

Russian FM Lavrov makes clear that there’s no Putin-Zelensky bilateral meeting planned nor is one happening anytime soon: “There is no meeting planned. And I'm not challenging this, but you -- you cannot, cannot, I think, understand what I am saying. Putin is ready to meet with