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Everything seems inevitable in hindsight, but just a tough environment for an incumbent administration

CBS News currently rates U.S. Senate control is LEANING REPUBLICAN.

Very lucky to be joining the CBS News data desk this evening, looking at precinct data from key battlegrounds. Currently forecasting 630K 2-party turnout with healthy uncertainty. Seeing a consistent 2-3pp deterioration in Dem margins across precincts

At the county level we're seeing a consistent 1.3pp shift against Dems; larger in more Democratic counties. Currently forecasting R+2-4pp shift in the popular vote versus 2020

CBS News projects Republicans take control of the U.S. Senate Deb Fischer winning in Nebraska puts GOP at 51 seats

End of night update: county-demographic models showing big uphill battle for Harris in PA, MI, WI. Patterns consistent w/~ 5pp underperformance with Hispanic voters and 2-3pp shift nationwide. First GOP popular vote win since '04 looking quite likely.

CBS News characterizes control of the U.S. House as Lean Republican. Please see our latest seats estimates below, which reflect the minimum number each party is on track to win in the chamber.

Current estimates from exit poll show 2020 non-voters favoring Trump — consistent with first scenario we put out Sunday, in which high turnout boosts his margins in battleground states And among new voters, who told us this was their first time ever voting, margin is even bigger

Still learning about electorate, but latest exit poll data suggests GOP gains driven by men of color '20➡️'24 pres. vote White voters: R+17➡️16 White men: R+23➡️23 White women: R+11➡️8 Voters of color: D+45➡️31 Men of color: D+34➡️13 (down 21) Women of color: D+53➡️44 (down 9)

Some of the richest men in the world, including Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, have already become even richer as a result of President-elect Donald Trump's victory.

Sharing more post-election analysis here moving forward bsky.app/profile/kabirk…

Harris leads by 5.3% in Virginia, which matches Hillary's 2016 margin here exactly. Interstate 64, which includes a stretch form Williamsburg to RVA to Cville, stands out as especially D-trending. Weird to make a VA swing map with Fairfax/Loudoun moving redder, but here we are.

CBS News has projected Democrat Jacky Rosen winning the U.S. Senate race in Nevada That makes 46 Senate seats so far for Democrats, compared to 52 for Republicans There are now just two races outstanding: Pennsylvania, which leans Republican but may go to a recount, and Arizona

CBS News has projected Democrat Ruben Gallego winning U.S. Senate race in Arizona That makes 47 Democrats elected to U.S. Senate in 2024

With California CD 13 results in (D flip), U.S. House wins are 220 R - 215 D Net gain of one seat for Democrats from balance of power heading into election, resulting in very narrow GOP majority (Note: totals include seats that may be vacant when new session of Congress begins)

“75% [of Americans] felt that their wages were not keeping up with inflation. I saw a lot of economists report basically the opposite,” Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) shared at our panel on what happened during the presidential election and why. Thanks to our Center for the Study of Democratic